I’m going to get on a hot streak. Baseball hasn’t been bad by any means this year, but it has been a bit of a struggle at times. It seems like every time I get some good wins in a row, I run into some losses. While some of them have been bad luck, some were bad picks, and both count as losses. Tonight the Mariners take on the Pirates, and I want this to be the start of my turnaround.

What are we going to do with the Seattle Mariners this year? The team has been very aggressive at the trade deadline in recent years, so I would not be surprised to see them heavily involved in trades this year. They definitely need a bat for the club. They are only hitting .232, but who are they going to replace in their lineup? The team has solid players at each position, and no one aside from Cal Raleigh, who has been injured, is having a truly terrible year. I like pretending to be a GM, but this is not a team for which I can see an obvious solution.

Their pitching staff remains a strength, and maybe it is just a matter of everyone getting healthy or playing up to potential. One guy who could improve is today’s starter, George Kirby. Kirby has a lot of talent, but he is just 5-7 for the season with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has been more reliable on the road than at home, allowing just two homers as opposed to seven at home. He does have three fewer road starts, though. He has posted back-to-back quality starts, but he has consistently given up three or more runs in his past six outings. Pirates hitters are batting just .234 against him.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are about where I expected them to be this season. They are exactly .500 at the moment and just aren’t consistently reliable in any specific area. They are another team that will probably get on the phones for the trade deadline. They could likely use another bat (although every team probably feels that way). However, they probably could benefit from some reliable starting pitching. Honestly, if they can get another strong pitcher, that means they have Paul Skenes and one other great arm to lead them in a playoff series.

Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller throws to the plate during the first inning against the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim, Calif., on July 23, 2023. (Mark J. Terrill/AP)

Before we get to that, they still need to find a way to win enough games to even make it to the postseason. They could use some better pitching from today’s starter, Mitch Keller. The Pirates have gotten some good performances in the past from Keller, but he seems to have peaked. He is 5-4 for the year with a 4.92 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. He has been hit hard at home, allowing 28 earned runs in 43.2 innings. After starting the year strong, he has allowed five or more earned runs in four of his past six home starts. Mariners hitters have a solid .333 average against him in 36 at-bats.

To back the Mariners here, you have to assume Seattle is going to hit. They have been decent on that front, but they just don’t have a ton of success manufacturing runs this season. About a third of their runs have come from homers (98 homers and only 326 runs this year). Keller doesn’t give up a ton of homers.

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George Kirby of the Seattle Mariners throws a pitch during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Fla., on Sept. 8, 2023. (Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)

I’m thinking the best thing to do here is take the Mariners anyway, at least through five innings. Kirby will probably allow a few runs, but he pitches better on the road, and Keller pitches worse at home. I do think the over is a solid look tonight as well because both starters should allow three runs. Give me the Mariners at -126.

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