America is running a real-time experiment in politics and prosperity, and California and Texas are the laboratories.

As one of the few people who actually moved from Texas to California, I’ve had a front-row seat to both.

We won’t know for another decade which model ultimately produces better results, but we can compare the facts and numbers today.

People vote at the ballot box every two years. They vote with their feet every day.

Both states have seen major shifts in population, but in opposite directions. In California, almost 1.3 million people have left the state in the last six years, the highest rate in the country.

Meanwhile, Texas grew by 2.6 million residents between 2020 and 2025, giving it the largest population increase of any state in the nation. This could be due to a variety of factors, but the numbers suggest that many Americans, and the companies they work for, view Texas as a better source of economic opportunity and affordability. 

For the average Joe, Texas is also becoming more appealing than California. The California Dream used to be that the Golden State was affordable for all. But now, too many families are moving because that dream is unattainable.

Homeownership is becoming impossible for many middle-income Californians. When a teacher, police officer, nurse or firefighter can’t afford to buy a home in the communities they serve, that’s not a housing problem. That’s a governing problem.

There’s no doubt that California is an economic powerhouse and still sets the pace for innovation globally. The state employs over 1.5 million tech workers and leads the US high-tech sector with approximately $542.5 billion in direct economic output a year. California has unmatched innovation and talent in AI, biotech, quantum hardware and other advancing technologies. 

However, California’s government has yet to figure out how to keep its competitive edge without regulating itself into stagnation. 

Regulations such as AI-in-hiring mandates, expanding employment requirements and California’s aggressive labor litigation framework are making it harder and more expensive to operate a business. Under laws like PAGA, even minor payroll or administrative errors can escalate into costly lawsuits, creating significant risk for employers of all sizes.

Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters

According to the Public Policy Institute of California, California has far more constraints on businesses than other states, with a grand total of 3,737 restrictions in place. All of this is discouraging for businesses, especially smaller businesses and startups, to keep their footing in the Golden State.

California does not have a revenue problem. It has a results problem.

The state excels at creating wealth. It struggles to make that wealth affordable for the people who live there.

California builds world-changing companies. Texas makes it easier to build a life.

Texas starts from a different place. Housing is more attainable. Taxes are lower. Regulation is lighter in key sectors. We’ve seen major companies such as Tesla, X, Oracle, and others move away from California and put down roots in the Lone Star State’s biggest cities. Top CEOs and executives are seeing the endless possibilities that Texas can offer them. When deciding where to expand, many of America’s largest companies are choosing Texas over California.

Rapid growth creates its own problems. Schools, roads and infrastructure all get stretched. But the starting point is different, and that shapes everything that follows. Texas continues to attract people and investment, but now has to manage the pressures that come with them, including infrastructure demands, grid reliability concerns and rapid urban, suburban and exurban growth.

Politically, California Democrats are increasingly having an internal argument. After years of one-party control, the debate is no longer just between Democrats and Republicans, but within the Democratic party itself. The question is no longer whether California is progressive. The question is whether progressive policies are producing results.

Texas is more politically stable. Growth is reshaping its politics, but the governing philosophy is consistent enough to keep its economic message intact.

Over time, people will make the judgment that matters most; not in commentary or politics, but in where they choose to live, work and raise a family.

California remains one of the greatest, most innovative and beautiful places on earth. The problem is that it’s becoming harder and harder to afford. 

For now, the California Dream isn’t dying.

It’s house-hunting in Texas.

Jeff Burton is a political strategist and co-founding partner of Maven Advocacy Partners.