Tropical Storm Bertha came ashore in Southeastern Louisiana early Wednesday morning, bringing up to three feet of storm surge and winds as high as 60 miles per hour.

Weather forecasting models do not predict the storm will get stronger, says Phil Klotzbach, a senior researcher in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. That’s in part because of strong wind shear from the northeast. It’s essentially a change in wind speed or direction over a short distance. The wind shear, which will push the bulk of the weather offshore, will also reduce the rainfall totals, said Jamie Rhome, the deputy director of the National Hurricane Center.

“We’re not expecting a big flood event like we normally would with a slow-moving system,” Rhome said. “As long as that continues to play out, Louisiana especially, could dodge some of the worst of the impacts.”

A tropical storm watch has been in effect for New Orleans and the southern Gulf Coast of Louisiana since 4 p.m. Tuesday. A coastal flood warning is in effect for the coastlines of Mississippi and Louisiana. Isolated areas of flash flooding are possible from western Florida through the upper Texas coast, according to the National Weather Service.

Click on the links for more information on Tropical Storm Bertha in your region: New Orleans, Alabama, North Central Florida, Austin and Houston.

Unusually warm Gulf waters increase risk of powerful storms

Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University predict fewer storms than average during the 2026 hurricane season. That’s in part because of a strong El Niño. This weather pattern drives up average global temperatures and generally tamps down hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

But abnormally warm temperatures in the Atlantic can also increase the likelihood of stronger storms, says Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa Bay, Fla. Atmospheric conditions play a large role, but Berardelli compares the warm water’s impact on storms to fuel for a car.

“The Gulf is high octane water for a storm right now because it’s warmer than normal,” Berardelli said.

Sea surface temperatures are unusually high in the part of the Atlantic where hurricanes are born. Temperatures are higher in part because the oceans have absorbed most of the extra heat trapped by planet-warming pollution from burning oil, gas and coal.