Months into the primaries, the question on everyone’s mind is whether Democrats can flip the Senate. Many of the battlegrounds are set and a few are yet to be decided in primaries but the answer remains murky.

The math is simple: with President Trump in the White House and a Republican vice president holding the tie-breaking vote, Democrats need to flip four seats to take control. Republicans say they’ll hold the majority, though they admit it could be narrow.

Given history and a less than favorable political environment for Republicans, the party is bracing for Democrats to pick up between one and three seats.

The fact remains that neither party has easily won Senate races in states that voted for the other party’s presidential candidate. Still, Trump’s low approval rating and the War with Iran combined with economic frustration across the country could change where things stand.

Some trends in the Democratic Senate primaries include the rise of socialist candidates as well as younger, outsider candidates. Republicans say the former will benefit them because the Republican electorate which wants “centrist, commonsense policies” will “vehemently” reject candidates who come with “massive tax burdens.”

Here’s the landscape, ranked from most to least likely to flip. Tier 1 is most likely, Tier 2 is competitive but less so, and so on. Race ratings (Toss-Up, Lean, etc.) come from the Cook Political Report and analysis draws on conversations with political operatives working on these campaigns.

Tier 1 – Most likely to flip: North Carolina

NORTH CAROLINA (R-Open) LEAN D:

The Tar Heel state offers Democrats the best chance at a pickup this November. The retirement of Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has set an open contest between former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat who won statewide twice even as Trump carried North Carolina, and Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman and a close Trump ally. Cooper has widespread name recognition and has consistently led Whatley in the polls as well as with fundraising. Republicans, though, are confident about Whatley’s fundraising skills in an expensive race and point out voter registration numbers favor Republicans. Cooper would be looking to break a drought — Democrats last won a Senate race in the state nearly two decades ago, in 2008.

Tier 2 – The Toss-Ups: Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio

ALASKA (R-Sullivan) TOSS UP:

The entry of one Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, who shares a name with Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan has tipped Alaska, moving it from a Lean Republican seat to a toss-up. Under Alaska’s election system, all candidates compete in a single open primary, and the top four finishers advance to a general election decided by ranked-choice voting. This means both Sullivans could appear on the November ballot, confusing voters. Sen. Sullivan has failed to have his fellow Dan Sullivan removed from the ballot. Democrats believe former Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native to join Congress in 2022, can win by hammering affordability. Republicans are betting that the state’s deep red lean will reassert itself — buoyed by the fact that Alaskans rejected Peltola in the 2024 House race. Primary: Aug. 18.