Two pre-season World Series favorites will finish their three-game set on Thursday night.

Despite winning the opening game of this series, the Mariners have been a disappointment this year, sitting just under .500, and have opened as +128 underdogs for Thursday’s game.

They send one of their starring pitchers to the mound on Thursday night as Bryce Miller (4-5, 2.75 ERA) gets the ball opposite Roki Sasaki (4-5, 4.71 ERA).

While Sasaki looks to be the weak link of this pitching matchup, he’s actually on arguably the best stretch of his short MLB career.

The 24-year-old just twirled seven innings of one-run ball against the Mets, where he struck out nine batters in one of the best starts of his young career.

Some stories are floating around that a new-sized glove is to credit for his turnaround, as the Dodgers believed he was tipping his pitches.

In his last three starts, he’s allowed just four earned runs in 18 ⅔ innings (1.93 ERA).

Meanwhile, Miller has struggled and even had some lowered velocity late in his starts, perhaps pointing to some fatigue setting in for the Mariners’ hulking starter who hasn’t been fully healthy since 2024.

The Dodgers are surely rightful favorites, but perhaps most importantly, I think there is real concern for Miller from the Mariners’ perspective.

Miller had been their best pitcher before his last three starts, where he’s allowed 11 earned runs in 16 innings (5.94 ERA), and he failed to strike out a batter last time out.

For that reason, I’m backing the Dodgers on Thursday night, with a bet on the Dodgers to win -1.5 on the run line, and I also like a bet on the Dodgers over 2.5 total runs in the first five innings of Thursday’s contest.

Sasaki’s strikeout total prop was not released at the time of writing, though it’s opened at 5.5 in seven of his last eight starts, so we’ll figure it starts there despite striking out nine last time.

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Target over on Sasaki’s strikeout total and take a stab at over 7.5 strikeouts at some bigger odds.

THE PLAYS: Dodgers -1.5 (+135, BetMGM) | Over 2.5 runs scored by the Dodgers in the first five innings (-110, Fanatics) | Sasaki over strikeouts

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