Every year, there seems to be one division in baseball (or really any sport) that no team in the division actually wants to win. This year, we have that in the American League West. We are a day away from August, and the first-place team is 13 games ahead of the last-place team, but also just 2.5 games ahead of the third-place team. The first-place team and second-place team take each other on today.

The Texas Rangers are above .500 and in first place in the division, but this record of 55-54 is fairly pathetic for a division leader. 55 wins would put them in third place in every other division. The Rangers, despite not having a ton of big names in the lineup, have a pretty solid offense. They are hitting .245 for the year, which is good for 12th in the league. Perhaps what I find most encouraging about them is that they are 17th in homers, meaning they are hitting for more average than relying on power. The problem is they are 23rd in runs scored. So, they are leaving a lot of guys on base.

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The team was never really intended to be built around their offense, though. This team is built on pitching. They have three strong arms in the rotation, meaning if they get to the postseason, they could be a tough out for anyone they face. Tonight, they send out Nathan Eovaldi. He is not having as good of a year as last season, coming in with a 10-8 record, 4.05 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP. He has been slightly better on the road, but has four more road starts than at home. He has been fairly consistent over the past two months, with most starts seeing him allow three or four earned runs. He only faced Houston once this year and allowed five earned runs in seven innings.

The Houston Astros, even in a down year, have a good chance to make the postseason. They also have 55 wins, but at 55 losses, they are a half-game behind the Rangers. They are in an interesting position because they have a guy who is having an MVP-candidate season in Yordan Alvarez, but they don’t feel like a team that can win the World Series. There has been talk of this team trading guys away or adding, but my guess is they don’t make many changes and still find ways to push for a chance at the division title by the end of the year.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Hunter Brown throws against the New York Mets during the first inning of a baseball game Monday, June 19, 2023, in Houston. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Tonight they send out Hunter Brown to the hill. He hasn’t had much work this year, coming in with just 47 innings pitched this season. Brown was injured after March and didn’t come back until June. He does have solid numbers at 2-1 with a 3.45 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He has made seven straight starts, and it has been a bit of a mixed bag. He has three quality starts and three starts where he didn’t get through five innings. He pitched against Texas a couple of weeks ago and allowed three earned runs over six innings.

Alvarez has had really good success against Eovaldi. He has gone 12-for-25 against Eovaldi with five extra-base hits. Looking at him for 2+ total bases is always a good idea, but today seems to make sense against a tougher pitcher. I’ll take my chances with the prop at -116. I don’t normally do it unless it is plus money, but I like this one enough to make the move.

Houston Astros’ Yordan Alvarez celebrates after hitting a two-run home run during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals in Kansas City, Mo., on June 12, 2026. (Charlie Riedel/AP)

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Additionally, I think the best option is to take the over 7.5 in this game. While neither team is all that impressive when it comes to offensive production, and both starters are good, I think both have shown they are hittable right now. My expectation is that we see at least eight runs in this one. I think there are more possibilities of the over hitting than the under. Give me the over.

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