WWE SummerSlam 2026 predictions, match card analysis for Night 1: Why CM Punk retains

Night 1 of SummerSlam gives us more variety than we are used to from WWE at these big events
Triple H and Co. are giving us two six-person matches, a Hell in a Cell clash and the return of Nick Aldis after three years out of the ring. The cherry on top at U.S. Bank Stadium on Saturday (6 p.m., ESPN Unlimited) is seeing CM Punk and Cody Rhodes have their first single match since September 2008, this time with the richest prize in WWE and possibly their on-screen friendship on the line.
With plenty at stake in Minneapolis, Post pro wrestling columnist Joseph Staszewski tries his best to predict how it will all play out.
The Bloodline (Jey Uso, Jimmy Uso & Jacob Fatu) vs. LA Knight, Solo Sikoa & Royce Keys
This one really could go either way and it feels like there needs to be a betrayal. More damage is done to the loose alliance of Knight, Sikoa and Keys moving forward with a loss, and Jimmy could take the pin if WWE wants to protect Fatu and Jey. Roman Reigns is going to need challengers after being done with Seth Rollins and one of them could come from this trio.
Even with that said, the story won’t have a major thread to move it forward unless someone turns. If WWE does have The Bloodline win, it could be Sikoa rejoining the family — even if he feels rejuvenated as a babyface. Keys turning heel on Sikoa without joining The Bloodline gives them both something to do after SummerSlam and still leaves Knight — who has longstanding issues with The Bloodline — free to chase gold. Keys has a longstanding friendship with Fatu, and he will do something to open the door for The Bloodline to pin Sikoa to get the win.
Pick: The Bloodline
The Bella Twins and Paige vs. Fatal Influence (Jacy Jayne, Fallon Henley and Lainey Reid)
This match needs to be about reestablishing Nikki Bella fresh off her return on Raw from a serious ankle injury she suffered before WrestleMania. Lainey Reid and Fallon Henley have already taken the Women’s tag team championships off Paige and Nikki’s twin sister Brie, so it’s time to get full revenge.
Brie’s return after eight years away was about getting the Bella Twins a run as tag champs, and you have to feel WWE is going to get back to and honor that at some point this year. Nikki has already said time is starting to run out on her career, so there is no time to waste. She will score the pin to start setting that in motion, as she can claim Fatal Influence never beat her and her sister.
Pick: The Bella Twins and Paige
Liv Morgan (c) vs. Iyo Sky for the Women’s World Championship
Sky already beat Morgan in the Queen of the Ring final to earn this match. Morgan was cursed by Danhausen that night, and as long as things remain that way, the result could be the same. But there are enough signs that point to a different result.
Morgan is a much bigger star, so there is value in keeping the gold around her waist until the return of the injured Stephanie Vaquer, whom The Judgment Day attacked to write her off TV. Also, does WWE want to just deliver the same result it telegraphed at Night of Champions? Maybe Judgment Day forces Danhausen to lift the curse backstage to raise the heat on his and Dominik Mysterio’s Night 2 match.
After Raquel Rodriguez won the women’s Intercontinental Championship on Monday, it feels like WWE is setting up an even slower burn to her and Morgan finally being at odds with one another. So the Judgment Day numbers advantage should win out here.
Pick: Liv Morgan
Gunther vs. Nick Aldis
Gunther needs to start building momentum again, so losing to the general manager who is having his first WWE match and first match in three years would only curtail that.
Aldis, who is married to Mickie James, is no ordinary GM, however. He is a former NWA and Impact world champion. They both wrestle a more throwback style. It will be interesting to see what we get from them, but Aldis should be allowed to push Gunther a bit as WWE needs to see what it has in him.
Aldis will take us on a ride after Gunther tried to bully him for weeks, incorrectly feeling decisions he made as GM screwed him out of the WWE championship. Aldis did cost Gunther the match at Saturday Night’s Main Event after being pushed too far. The Ring General will ultimately prevail and hopefully move on to bigger and better things.
Pick: Gunther
Oba Femi vs. Brock Lesnar with Paul Heyman (Hell in a Cell)
WWE pushed this matchup to a trilogy for a reason, and it wasn’t for the rising star Femi to lose. Femi gave up the world title shot he earned by winning King of the Ring for this because being the first person to beat Lesnar inside Hell in a Cell is quite the career-changing consolation. WWE has sold Lesnar running from Femi a bit in the lead-up, but he can’t on Saturday in a match that could put the rocket on Femi’s back.
It took Lesnar seven F5s to beat Femi at Clash in Italy in May, so The Ruler should take quite the beating in this one again — and so should Lesnar if Femi is going to get the ultimate rub from The Beast on his march to being a world champion down the road.
Lesnar “retired” after his loss to Femi at WrestleMania and there is no telling if it could happen for real this time in the city the former UFC heavyweight champion made his name as a collegiate wrestler. Many pegged SummerSlam for a while as where it would happen before what he pulled at Mania. Lesnar has always been Mr. SummerSlam, so don’t rule it out, but the next one should be clearly defined after the ambiguity of what happened in April. This situation doesn’t feel set up for that as Lesnar could still have a match with Gunther in time.
Pick: Oba Femi
CM Punk (c) vs. Cody Rhodes for the Undisputed WWE Championship
This is a WrestleMania main event come early, and the tensions between these two friends have grown even more strained as the weeks have gone on.
Rhodes is consumed with getting back the WWE championship he lost to Sami Zayn at Night of Champions and that Punk took his place in a match in Chicago to beat Zayn for the title. It’s led to “brothers” quarreling and leaving us wondering if we are on the cusp of the long-awaited heel turn for Rhodes.
Punk winning is the most intriguing outcome this far out from another big show. It would put Rhodes in a more uncomfortable place than Punk losing a world title for the second time in four months. We just saw him do that to Roman Reigns at WrestleMania.
He could probably accept defeat to Rhodes. The American Nightmare, on the other hand, would have to do it with a bite of his lip at best. A third WWE run for Rhodes within the last year just isn’t that interesting unless WWE refilled it’s heel coffers with Kevin Owens, Randy Orton or Zayn interfering to give the company’s Golden Boy a fresh direction. An RKO out of nowhere from Orton after a Rhodes win is certainly plausible.
Still, this feels like the best chance to finally turn Rhodes heel. Punk, all along, felt like the best catalyst. It could happen immediately after the match as he raises Punk’s hand or on the next SmackDown. Maybe he even finally sells his soul to The Rock with his lust for the title so great. It’s as intriguing a match as WWE can put on right now.
Pick: CM Punk