Scientists with something to sell have lost Americans’ trust in science. This new philosophy can restore that trust

Scientists with something to sell have lost Americans’ trust in science. This new philosophy can restore that trust

Uncertainty creates anxiety. We feel we live in uncertain times — and so did almost every generation before us, probably all the way back to the Stone Age, where uncertainty lurked everywhere. In fact, we have far more control over our fates than any previous generation. And yet uncertainty still plagues us.  

But the most recent advances in science are producing good reasons to embrace uncertainty. We are learning that it is a fundamental characteristic of the universe, a place ruled mostly by randomness and probability. If that’s unsettling, consider the alternative: a universe that is governed by immutable laws and is simply ticking away like a perfectly running clock with everything occurring as it had been determined since the very first microsecond of its existence.

The James Webb telescope revealed images of the red, white, and blue Cassiopeia A on America’s 250th birthday. NASA/CXC/SAO et al. / SWNS

Randomness, and the uncertainty that accompanies it, is a powerful force. Learning to use it has resulted in new insights about complex systems from living creatures to black holes. Even more important, randomness and uncertainty are forces of optimism. Every instance of chance is an opportunity for science to overcome something that once plagued us.

How can this be the case?

Niels Bohr, one of the founding scientists of quantum mechanics, reportedly said that “the opposite of a fact is a falsehood. But the opposite of a profound truth may well be another profound truth.” Wrap your head around that one. Why settle for one answer when there may be several suitable ones, depending on what you are trying to accomplish?

The Danish scientist Niels Bohr helped over 7,000 Danish Jews escape Nazi rule during World War II. Bettmann Archive

This requires an attitude of uncertainty — a belief that “it could be otherwise.” Uncertainty allows us to entertain multiple possibilities instead of assuming we need to land on just one. It allows to us believe that we are not consigned to our current conditions. In other words, uncertainty makes us free.

This is a tremendous realization that scientists only began to internalize in recent generations. It has enabled advances in drug discovery, lasers, GPS and more, and opened up our understanding of cosmology, economics, and meteorology.

Certainty, it turns out, is not so desirable after all. If everything were certain, then where would the opportunity for adventure, creativity, imagination come from? Only scientists who embrace uncertainty can make big discoveries.

The belief that science is about answers — the answer, the solution — to every problem has led to exaggerated expectations that cannot be fulfilled.

Worse, this belief has contributed to the current mistrust and suspicion of science. Experts eager to prove their own theories, profit from and influence the public have misled Americans into thinking that science offers definitive, final answers to the most important questions. “Trust the science,” some doctrinaires insist to push policy positions, as if “science” has settled all questions once and for all.

Instead, the best scientists have a responsibility to show the public that we can live in age of optimistic uncertainty.

Such a philosophy does not mean that truth is in the eye of the beholder. It means that multiple useful answers exist to most problems. It is therefore a sign of flourishing, of abundance.

An example of what uncertainty enables: Blood-pressure medicine. Treating blood-pressure problems is extremely complex. We have invented at least nine types of medicine for it, and those all work in widely differing ways. Doctors cannot tell a patient definitively that a particular medicine will work — they can only use probabilities.

Here, the Hubble telescope peers into the Milky Way’s central hub of stars. NASA/Hubble / SWNS

Anybody claiming with total certainty that one treatment will work is selling something, and will inevitably disappoint the patients for whom the treatment doesn’t work. And some people may be frustrated to learn that we only have these uncertain options.

But that’s ignoring the amazing fact that we have nine options to treat patients with! And this is in spite of the fact that we still do not have a complete understanding of how the body regulates blood pressure. This is thanks to scientists who embrace uncertainty. Their efforts have successfully extended the healthy lives of millions of people.

Unsettled science is not unsound science. It is from uncertainty that discovery and progress are produced. When we embrace uncertainty and learn to navigate it, we begin to recognize that things could be otherwise. That’s a lesson for researchers and everyday folks alike. And it’s the philosophical key to optimism.

Stuart Firestein is a professor of neurobiology at Columbia University and author of “It Could be Otherwise: Science at the Edge of Uncertainty.

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