We had the first football game of the season yesterday. Okay, so not really the actual season, but it was the official first preseason game of the NFL year, and we now have something like 20 straight weeks of football on Thursday nights from here on out. I don’t know about you, but I can’t wait. This has been a good baseball season, but football is still the king of sports. In order to build up our bankroll for the season, we should get some cash on this Astros and Padres game.

The Houston Astros are 59-57 for the season and currently sitting in first place in the AL West. It makes almost no sense to me that Houston would be in this position. I’m not surprised they are roughly a .500 team. Based on their roster, and their pitching especially, that checks out. What is surprising is that the Mariners (or even the Rangers) haven’t taken over the division from them. The Astros still have the American League MVP, and maybe that’s all they need in order to get the division this year.

I mentioned there have been issues with their pitching staff, and they even traded away a couple of guys before the trade deadline. I don’t really think they took back any starter of substance, though. Today, for example, they are starting Ronel Blanco, who has only pitched in 14.2 innings this season. In the three games that he has pitched, he has given up at least three earned runs, walked at least two hitters, and allowed at least one homer. The most he pitched in any game was 5.1 innings. Padres hitters haven’t seen Blanco much, with only three players ever facing him, and they are a combined 0-for-9.

The San Diego Padres are once again a disappointment. Did that prevent me from betting on them to win the World Series? Absolutely not. I generally think that talent wins out, and the Padres do have talent. The Dodgers have more talent than anyone, but the Padres’ roster stacks up fairly well, even if their team is underperforming once again. Their best hitters are struggling this season, but if they can all lock in, San Diego can go on a tear like Boston has this season.

The San Diego Padres logo is displayed on the field at PETCO Park before a game against the St. Louis Cardinals on April 3, 2024, in San Diego, California. (Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)

For whatever reason, it just never all seems to click at the right time for the Padres. Maybe I just overvalue their players for some reason. They once again went out and added to their team in hopes of making the push for the World Series. They traded for Robbie Ray, who starts tonight. Ray comes to them with a 10-6 record, 3.08 ERA, and a 1.29 WHIP. At his best, Ray is Cy Young-caliber. At his worst, he is still a really strong and reliable pitcher. He is coming off of two fantastic months of work, allowing just 11 runs in his past 60 innings. The Astros have been good against Ray in the past, owning a 17-for-54 history.

The majority of the damage from the Astros has come from Jose Altuve. It probably makes sense to put a player prop on him to get 2+ total bases against Ray. He is 11-for-20 against him with six extra-base hits. Even better, Altuve has only struck out once against him, so he is putting the ball in play when he faces Ray.

Fernando Tatis Jr. of the San Diego Padres runs in from the outfield during a game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C., on July 20, 2025. (G Fiume/Getty Images)

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In addition to the player prop, I will take the Padres to win this game. Ray has been locked in, and I really don’t think the Astros are that good of a team. If you can count on the Padres anywhere, it is certainly at home they are 32-25 in San Diego for the season. Give me the Padres to win this one at -126.

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