Cardinals vs Cubs baseball betting picks: Why the over looks strong in this afternoon matchup
I’ve never come close to playing sports at a professional level. However, I recognize not only the physical abilities you need but also the mental side of it. I always wonder what players think about travel, game times, their teammates, the franchise, etc. At the end of the day, they are still people just like you and me with a job. Some of them love it, some of them probably hate it, and some might just miss their families. This thought was in my head today as we get another baseball game to bet on between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs.
The reason the thought came up is that the Cardinals essentially gave up on their team, even though the club was having a solid season. The team is .500 right now, and still in the Wild Card race. Now, in fairness to their front office, they are still chasing the Cubs and the Brewers, and their playoff chances are fairly small.
Maybe they even took calculated risks and said, maybe we can get to the postseason while still setting ourselves up for next season and beyond.
Shirtless fans celebrate after the St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Kansas City Royals at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Mo., on May 16, 2026. (Jeff Curry/Imagn Images)
The team needed pitching, and instead of getting it, they actually sent some away. That does open other opportunities for guys, like today’s starter Hunter Dobbins, to get evaluated further. Dobbins has been solid with a 2-3 record, 3.40 ERA, and a 1.31 WHIP. He has done a little work out of the bullpen, but he has mostly started for the team. It has been solid results overall. He has faced the Cubs twice this season and allowed five earned runs in nine innings. When he started, he allowed four earned runs against them.
The Chicago Cubs are playing some of the best ball in all of baseball, and still don’t lead their division.
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At the beginning of the season, it was a clump of NL Central teams looking to try and position themselves for a division crown. For a while, it looked like it was going to be a five-team race. Since about May, it has really become a two-horse race, and right now the Brewers have a three-game lead over the Cubs. The problem for the Cubs was the pitching, and that got addressed with a flurry of moves around the trade deadline, and if they’re lucky, they may get back Justin Steele.

Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Edward Cabrera delivers a pitch against the New York Mets during the first inning at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Ill., on April 17, 2026. (Kamil Krzaczynski/Imagn Images)
That won’t happen today, but a different pitcher is coming back: Edward Cabrera. It hasn’t been an overly impressive first year for the Cubs, but there is no denying Cabrera’s talent. He is 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Looking at his game-by-game stats, he certainly has made some really strong outings, but doesn’t seem capable of doing it consistently.
For example, in the eight games before he went on the injured list in late June, he allowed three earned runs, five, three, one, eight, two, five, and two. He also isn’t throwing very deep into games, averaging about five innings per start and completing at least six innings in just four of his 14 starts.

Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs celebrates a home run in the first inning of a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Wrigley Field on August 5, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images) (Matt Dirksen/Chicago Cubs/Getty Images)
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This is a game that the Cardinals probably should win, but with the Cubs offense and their defense, they are very tough to beat. I think that the game is likely to see a lot of runs as well. An afternoon game at Wrigley with two teams who are familiar with each other, and two pitchers who aren’t quite reliable. Give me the over.
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