Arch Manning and Texas were a disappointment in 2025. There’s no getting around that.

But that’s only part of the story. Because if you were paying attention after everybody else abandoned the Hook’em bandwagon after a loss to Florida in early October, you would have been encouraged with what you saw.

Manning was one of the best quarterbacks in college football down the stretch, and the Longhorns ended their 2025 campaigns with seven wins from eight, including triumphs over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Michigan.

There was reason to be excited about what was to come from Texas, especially with Manning returning.

Optimism grew further when Steve Sarkisian was able to recruit two terrific tailbacks, Arizona State’s Raleek Brown and NC State’s Hollywood Smothers, from the portal. Cam Coleman, one of the nation’s most exciting wide receivers, also joined the party.

There is tremendous upside in Austin, once again. The oddsmakers have taken note, as the Longhorns (+300) are essentially co-favorites with Georgia (+280) to win the SEC, and they’re tied with Indiana as the third choice to win the national championship at +750.

But the problem is the same as it was last year. The Longhorns will need to be pretty close to perfect to make the College Football Playoff, as they have an absolute beast of a schedule to deal with this season.

By Halloween, Texas will have hosted Ohio State, Ole Miss, and Florida, and visited Tennessee and Oklahoma. That doesn’t mention their trip to LSU in November, or their season finale at Kyle Field against Texas A&M.

Overall, ESPN ranks Texas’ strength of schedule as the third-toughest in the country, only trailing Arkansas and Oklahoma. There’s the break when you bolt the relatively friendly confines of the Big 12 for the SEC.

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With Manning as the headliner, and a program that has become one of the sport’s biggest headliners, it’s pretty easy to see how the Longhorns become overvalued in the betting market.

They were considered one of the favorites to win the national championship last season, and are right back at the top of the board despite a disappointing 2025 campaign and a brutal path in 2026.

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They may be one of the best teams in the country, and Manning may be one of the elite quarterbacks in college football, but that doesn’t mean they’re a shoo-in to get to the Playoff. Not in this day and age.

I think it’s pretty close to a coin flip whether Manning and the Longhorns get into the dance, so at plus-money, the value is there to fade the Longhorns once again.

The play: Texas to miss the CFB Playoff (+150, bet365)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.