Anchored by Tulane, Memphis, Navy, North Texas, USF and Army, the AAC was the standout conference in the Group of 5 over the past two seasons.

That may change in 2026.

The Power 4 vultures circle positive momentum in the lower ranks, and the AAC’s best programs were picked apart by deep-pocketed bluebloods in the major conferences.

Ryan Silverfield (Memphis to Arkansas), Alex Golesh (USF to Auburn), Eric Morris (North Texas to Oklahoma State), and Jon Sumrall (Tulane to Florida) all depart the AAC after leading their programs to new heights, ushering in another new era in the conference.

Several of the standout players from last season have also moved on. Some to bigger programs like Drew Mestemaker (North Texas to Oklahoma State) and Byrum Brown (USF to Auburn). Others, like Navy’s do-it-all quarterback Blake Horvath, have graduated.

It’s a whole new ballgame in the AAC.

Best bet: UTSA to make the College Football Playoff (10/1, bet365)

The top of the AAC is vulnerable.

Every one of the conference’s best teams from the past two seasons has undergone significant change, and it’s anybody’s guess how the chips will fall.

That is great news for UTSA.

While the Roadrunners’ defense will have plenty of new faces in its ranks in 2026, the key parts of its dynamic offense return. So do head coach Jeff Traylor and his longtime defensive coordinator Jess Loep.

That right there is a terrific foundation in a conference that feels like it’s starting over.

But this isn’t stability for stability’s sake; there’s some serious positive momentum behind UTSA.

The jump from C-USA to the AAC is quite a big one, but Traylor’s teams have performed admirably, going 23-16 since the leap.

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Things should be even brighter this year.

Quarterback Owen McCown returns along with two of his top three pass-catchers from 2025, and the offensive line has plenty of experience. The Roadrunners were explosive last year and are expected to be even more so this time around.

For a defense that could go through some growing pains, having an offense that can post crooked numbers is a huge deal.

UTSA is +475 to win the AAC at DraftKings, putting it behind only Navy.

Instead of playing that number, I’ll go for double the price on the Roadrunners to make the College Football Playoffs, as I think there’s a very real chance they’re the best team in the Group of 6 this season.

Long shot: Charlotte (300/1, DraftKings)

When a conference undergoes as much change at the top as the AAC did this offseason, it makes sense to take on a lotto ticket.

We always see at least a couple of surprises challenge for conference titles every season, and there is a good shot we see at least one shocker in this division.

There are a couple of reasons I landed on Charlotte as my long-shot pick here.

The most obvious one is the price. The 49ers were terrible last year and have been for quite some time, so it’s no wonder why they’re being offered at 300/1 to win a Group of 6 conference.

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The other reason I have the slightest bit of hope for the 49ers is the quarterback. Conner Harrell looked like he could inject some life to this offense last September before he went down with an injury, and he should be at 100 percent. That’s reason enough for optimism, relative to the price.

Harrell will have plenty of newcomers to throw to, but the portal haul could be explosive, which may ease the burden on the defense.

You’re asking for a lot of things to go right here, no doubt, but having a high-upside quarterback and a solid coach automatically lends some value to a team when they’re 300/1.

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.