It’s hard to set expectations for USC this season.

In a vacuum, you’d say that a high-profile program led by one of the country’s highest-paid coaches with a Heisman-caliber quarterback should compete for a national championship.

But in this era of college football, you need even more than that to compete with the elite programs, especially if you’re in the Big Ten.

Nonetheless, anything short of a trip to the College Football Playoff would be a bitter pill for Lincoln Riley and USC to swallow.

They’ll get a great chance to pad their numbers out of the gate as a 38.5-point favorite against San Jose State, which projects to be among the worst programs in the country this season.

It’s been a tough run for Ken Niumatalolo at SJSU.

It looked like the program was slowly trending in the right direction after his first year, but things went awry in 2025, and a lot of it was out of his control. His quarterback, Walker Eget, played on a torn ACL.

His offensive line crumbled. And his running backs couldn’t stay on the field. A Murphy’s Law season in college football usually leads to a reset, and that’s what Niumatalolo will do in 2026.

Niumatalolo will turn to Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver at quarterback to run the offense, but the supporting cast is barren.

The defense is even more concerning, as Niumatalolo will go with a baptism-by-fire approach with a very inexperienced bunch and a first-time coordinator, Bojay Filimoeatu.

Catch up on The Post’s college football betting predictions and previews for the 2026 season

Perhaps this faith will pay off in the long run, but bringing a completely remade roster (and staff) to LA Memorial Coliseum for a date with USC in Week 0 is a brutal way to begin a new era.

This is a massive spread, and I imagine Riley will rotate his lineup at some point in the second half, but I think we could be looking at a 50-spot for the Trojans here.

THE PLAY: USC -38.5 (-115, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.