The month of September means football is officially back, and with preseason dress rehearsals behind us, now is the time to call some shots toward major awards, including Most Valuable Player. 

Last season, Matthew Stafford authored a precise, dominant run, continuing the trend of quarterbacks capturing the award. 

In fact, since 2018, only five players, including Stafford, have taken home MVP honors, and they’re all signal callers.

Josh Allen won it in 2024, and the other three two-time winners were Patrick Mahomes (2018, 2022), Aaron Rodgers (2020, 2021), and Lamar Jackson (2019, 2023). 

The last time a non-quarterback secured the hardware was in 2012, when Adrian Peterson dominated the league. 

The current odds board remains heavily tilted toward quarterbacks, as Allen (+600), Jackson (+800), and Joe Burrow (+850) headline the field as frontrunners at DraftKings Sportsbook. 

2026 NFL MVP Award Odds

Stafford, at 14/1, offers intriguing repeat value now that the Rams have reunited with Aaron Donald, while Bijan Robinson sits at a massive 100/1, representing the first non-QB listed on a board buried under passing talent. 

With the landscape established, here are three picks (safe, midrange, and long-shot) to capture this season’s NFL MVP hardware. 

Lamar Jackson, +800 (DraftKings)

The dual-threat talent remains a perennial favorite, and a new coaching staff in Baltimore has the Ravens trending in a new direction. 

In addition to Jesse Minter taking over in Baltimore, Declan Doyle arrives with some momentum after a successful tenure as offensive coordinator alongside Ben Johnson in Chicago. 

Doyle loves a lot of pre-snap movement and play action in his scheme, which is nearly perfect for Jackson. 

Last season, Jackson led all quarterbacks in play-action passes, with the highest passer rating (147.6), yards per attempt (13.2), and completion percentage over expected (+11.9%), according to NFL NextGen Stats. 

Derrick Henry remains an outlier against the aging curve, and though the departure of Isaiah Likely creates a void, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, and Rashod Bateman should find plenty of space to operate within Doyle’s play calling. 

Betting on the NFL?

Jalen Hurts, 28/1 (BetRivers)

Strictly from his rushing upside, this is not a bad wager to place.

Hurts led all quarterbacks in rushing attempts and touchdowns for four straight seasons (thanks to the Tush Push) before Josh Allen snapped that streak in 2025. 

The AJ Brown drama plagued most of the Eagles’ last season, but Hurts returns under center behind the second-best offensive line, per Pro Football Focus. This veteran unit will clear plenty of space for Hurts and a guy named Saquon Barkley out of the backfield. 

His chemistry with DeVonta Smith remains intact from their college days, while one of the more underrated tight ends, Dallas Goedert, returns and is expected to be Hurts’ go-to red-zone target again. 

Whether Dontayvion Wicks or rookie Makai Lemon proves to be WR2-worthy remains to be seen, but I’m willing to buy some stock in Hurts, especially if he’s able to take care of the football. 

Catch up on The Post’s NFL betting previews and predictions for the 2026 season

Jared Goff, 35/1 (Caesars)

Goff perpetually operates within Stafford’s shadow regardless of his production. 

The blockbuster trade remains the defining context, yet the veteran signal caller continues to post elite numbers for Detroit.

Goff’s 2025 campaign saw him finish second in passing yardage (4,564) and touchdowns (34), trailing only you guessed in both categories. The Lions’ record was nowhere near their incredible 15-2 mark in 2024, but they enter this season with a favorable strength of schedule. 

With Penei Sewell shifting to left tackle to anchor the blind side, the Lions’ protection upfront will be key. 

While Jahmyr Gibbs’ projected rise to elite backfield status could hinder some volume, the presence of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams provides a pair of legit 1,000-yard targets at Goff’s disposal. 

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.