The global sell-off in government bonds that has recently been gathering steam has pushed borrowing costs to their highest levels in decades. Many analysts think the jump is not a blip but a lasting return to the elevated interest rates that were once common.

This shift is uncomfortable, making it more expensive for governments, households and businesses to get loans. It also shows the market is sending signals to central bankers that the short-term rates they control may need to rise to match economic conditions.

Those conditions, analysts say, include inflation that runs hotter than expected, growth that remains resilient and governments and large companies that have a seemingly insatiable appetite for taking on new debt.

The recent market moves “are the bond market catching up to reflect the state of the economy today,” said Hugh Gimber, a global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Earlier this year, most major central banks were expected to cut interest rates or hold them steady, but many now seem poised to raise them instead.

Central bankers must manage the complex interplay between the short-term interest rates they set and the borrowing costs set by investors trading in financial markets and registered in government bond yields. Policymakers primarily react to economic data on inflation and growth, but they are also mindful of the financial conditions created by the markets.

It is rare for policymakers these days to surprise investors with their actions, so central bank interest rates typically track market expectations.

Now investors are signaling that they expect interest rates to be higher. This week, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond hit a two-decade high. Government borrowing costs set by the markets in Japan, Germany and Britain also climbed to highs not seen in more than a decade.

The war in Iran, which is pushing up energy prices and raising concerns about inflation, is one factor behind the moves. Another is the weight of government spending among highly indebted major economies.

In the United States, a widening budget deficit is compounding $40 trillion in debt. In Japan, the government has cut taxes and is spending to cushion higher energy costs. The German government is borrowing more to invest in defense and infrastructure. And French voters have put pressure on politicians to maintain generous social benefits.

Meanwhile, technology companies are borrowing heavily to build artificial intelligence systems: The so-called hyperscalers have issued more than $200 billion in debt this year. That intensifies the competition between governments and companies for capital, Mr. Gimber said.

“That’s changing where the bargaining power sits,” he added. “And it’s investors now in the driving seat.”

As investors demand greater returns to hold bonds, they are also responding to higher inflation, which erodes the return on fixed-interest payments. So far, central bankers have been reluctant to raise rates quickly to quell inflation. Policymakers have said there are few signs that high prices are becoming deeply embedded in their economies. Yet the war in Iran has added uncertainty to the outlook for inflation.

“The longer this conflict runs, the greater that inflation pressure is going to be,” Mr. Gimber said. As a result, central bankers appear to be moving toward higher rates, he said, because “they can only claim to be patient for so long.”

Next week, the European Central Bank, which sets monetary policy for the 21 countries that use the euro, is widely expected to raise rates. It would be the second increase this year, and traders have increased their bets that the bank will raise rates again later in the year.

Kevin M. Warsh, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, recently acknowledged that the central bank might have “work to do” to slow inflation, after sending mixed messages in previous appearances. Financial markets see a 50-percent chance of a quarter-point increase at the central bank’s next meeting, in mid-September.

The Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates this month, having already lifted them this summer to 1 percent, the highest in 31 years. Traders are also raising their bets that the Bank of England may raise rates this year.

Still, higher bond yields are about more than just fears of higher inflation or government debt sustainability, analysts argue. They are a sign that the economy can withstand higher rates.

“In some ways I think this is a positive story of a global economy that has come back more strongly from the doldrums of the 2010s than was expected,” said Andrew Sheets, the global head of fixed income research at Morgan Stanley.

For about a decade after the 2008 financial crisis, inflation in some of the world’s richest economies was tame. Central banks kept interest rates at ultralow levels while buying enormous amounts of bonds to stoke economic activity. Back then, low bond yields “were reflecting a great pessimism around growth,” Mr. Sheets said.

Now, optimism about A.I. is leading to a rush of economic activity. And many economies have proved surprisingly resilient to repeated shocks, including U.S. tariffs and wars in Ukraine and Iran, even if they aren’t booming. The global economy is set to grow 3 percent this year and 3.4 percent in 2027, the International Monetary Fund projected, slowing only marginally from 3.5 percent last year.

Despite this sunnier perspective, an increasingly large stock of government debt is being forced to reckon with higher borrowing costs. Economists say it’s unclear how this might play out — whether governments rein in borrowing, or investors eventually balk at buying their debt.

“Bond markets can live with higher levels of government spending,” said Mr. Gimber of J.P. Morgan Asset Management. But only if “bond investors believe that spending is going to lead to stronger growth ahead.”