Rising American star Learner Tien had never won a match (0-4) at the US Open before this year. Now, the California native is just two victories away from a trip to the semifinals, and Tien will almost certainly be favored in both contests.

Tien is a -191 favorite over Karen Khachanov on Monday, but the Russian has a significant experience advantage in Grand Slam tennis.

Is that enough to warrant a bet on the underdog?

US Open: Khachanov vs. Tien pick

There isn’t really another player like Khachanov on the ATP Tour. The 30-year-old was once ranked No. 8 in the world, but the days of him playing at that level consistently are long gone. Instead, Khachanov has turned himself into a bit of a Grand Slam specialist who knows how to peak at the right time.

Khachanov has been to at least one major quarterfinal in five of the last seven campaigns, and he’s been to the semifinals twice (2022 US Open and 2023 Australian Open). In addition, Khachanov was a silver medalist at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021.

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Khachanov doesn’t really have an elite skill to lean on to take over a match, but he’s a relentless fighter and seems to relish the grueling style of tennis required at Grand Slams. He is a master at hanging around and busting through the door if you leave it open.

The problem is that Tien is playing at a level where it’s hard to see him let Khachanov crash the party. The 20-year-old crushed Nuno Borges and Gael Monfils in his first two matches in Queens, then put together a stirring comeback against World No. 18 Jakub Mensik to get to the Round of 16.

I don’t expect either of these players to make it easy on the other, but Tien’s got another level he can hit when the situation calls for it.

Bet on the American to win a classic.

The Play: Tien to win in 5 sets (+390, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.