Hottest El Niño on record could kill up to 451,000 people in six months, scientists claim — warning of a deadly new normal
The Super El Niño could impact more than just the thermostat.
The warm weather anomaly could cause an estimated 451,000 excess heat-related deaths by February 2027, per a frightening forecast by the Climate Impact Lab.
According to the paper, compiled by scientists from the University of Chicago, the Super El Niño will “lead to 44% more extremely hot days than we would expect in a normal year.” The apocalyptic phenomenon has already propelled sea surface temperatures to 3.07°C (around 5.5 F) — tying the record set by the 2015–16 El Niño — with scientists projecting it could become the hottest event in 1,000 years.
Understandably, the fallout is expected to be apocalyptic, per the study. Of the over 400,000 projected excess deaths from June through February, 239,000 are forecast to occur in the next six months.
However, researchers claim that the toll could be even higher based on predictions that El Niño will hang around until Spring, with residual impacts such as preternaturally high temps and heat-related deaths persisting into next summer.
The lion’s share of the forecasted casualties will be concentrated in the “Global South,” per the report. Nigeria boasts the highest projected death toll with 31,000 additional heat-related deaths from September through February compared to a normal year.
Following close behind, per the model, are Indonesia with 19,300 and Sudan with 17,600 estimated excess deaths. Meanwhile, Africa’s arid Sahel region, which comprises Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Sudan, is forecast to see 66,800 heat-induced deaths over the next six months.
Meanwhile, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia are projected to suffer an additional 19,400 deaths combined, according to the predictions.

To determine how many additional deaths the El Niño heat could cause, the team analyzed temperature forecasts and historical data on how heat affects mortality in over 24,000 regions across the globe.
They noted that the resulting “mortality forecasts” were “relative to matching months of an average year, treating 1996 – 2025 as the baseline normal.”
Unfortunately, the experts predict that these anomalous temps are “postcards from the future,” claiming that these alarming figures could become the new normal in just decades if we don’t adapt.
To prevent these dire outcomes, researchers are urging urgent action in the at-risk areas. While they noted that many regions already have preventative measures in place — including early warning systems, accurate temperature forecasting, and wider access to cooling technologies — they noted that these solutions don’t necessarily apply to other areas.
“We need to build the evidence base now for what works, and then invest in preparations and planning,” the researchers wrote. “Preparing for a hotter future will require a far more granular, continually updated understanding of what saves lives across different regions, climates, and health systems.”
However, the caveat is that these forecasts are projections. Meanwhile, the climate change lobby is facing increased scrutiny over the alarmist global warming narrative.
In October, renowned climate change doom-monger Bill Gates declared that worldwide temperatures increases “will not lead to humanity’s demise” — a stunning reversal from his prior claims.
Nonetheless, El Niño is already being blamed for various catastrophes, including wildfires in Indonesia, the absence of crucial monsoon rains in India, and droughts in Central America.
The latter are causing crops and animals to die and reducing water flow in the Panama Canal, prompting a trade slowdown.