Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman has taken a comfortable lead ahead of Mayor Karen Bass on the prediction market Polymarket as the two candidates head toward the Nov. 3 mayoral runoff.

Polymarket traders gave Raman about a 58% chance of winning the election, compared with roughly 42% for Bass, which is a gap of about 16 percentage points, according to results on the site Monday morning.

The numbers aren’t traditional polling numbers, they reflect the prices traders are willing to pay on results tied to each candidate winning the election. Polymarket allows users to buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of real-world events. 

The shift comes after a mid-September UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll, conducted with the Los Angeles Times, found Raman with 39% support among likely voters, compared with 28% for Bass. Another 33% remained undecided, leaving a significant portion of the electorate still up for grabs. The poll surveyed 2,000 likely voters. 

Raman, who represents the hillsides and parts of the San Fernando Valley in Los Angeles on the LA City Council, advanced to the runoff after finishing second in the June 2 primary. Bass led the field with about 34% of the vote, while Raman finished with roughly 29%.

Former reality television personality Spencer Pratt, who initially appeared to be in position to advance, ultimately finished third as later ballots were counted.

Raman has drawn particularly strong support from younger voters and has secured backing from progressive organizations, including the Los Angeles chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America.

Bass, meanwhile, has faced voter dissatisfaction over several major issues confronting the city, including homelessness, housing affordability and the response to the 2025 wildfires.

The September poll found Bass with an unfavorable rating of about 63%, which indicates the difficulties the incumbent is having as she seeks a second term.

One of the major questions heading into November is where voters who supported Pratt in the primary will go.

The Nov. 3 runoff was triggered because no candidate received more than 50% of the vote in the June primary.