Surprised by how the Dodgers have lined up their starting rotation for the National League Division Series?

So was Tarik Skubal.

At the end of his final start of the regular season last week, Skubal was informed by manager Dave Roberts that he would be the club’s Game 1 starter in the playoffs.

Skubal, obviously, was excited and honored.

But also, as Roberts noted, Skubal “was very respectful of Yoshinobu” Yamamoto –– evidently not exactly anticipating getting the nod ahead of the reigning World Series MVP and October hero from the Dodgers’ postseason run a season ago.

“We have thoughts on why we do things,” Roberts assured him, as he recounted ahead of the team’s World Series three-peat pursuit on Friday. 

“All those guys,” Roberts added of his rotation, “are all in for whatever we decide.”

This week, the Dodgers’ decision to bypass Yamamoto in not only Game 1 against the Braves but Game 2 as well –– Blake Snell will start in that game on Sunday night instead –– ultimately came down to scheduling.

For starters, Yamamoto made his last regular-season start two Wednesdays ago, then threw extensively in a simulated game during the Dodgers’ bye week this past Wednesday. By saving him for Game 3, which will be on Tuesday in Atlanta, he will remain on his usual pitching schedule –– as will Skubal (who last started two Fridays ago) and Snell (who was right behind Skubal in the rotation order at the end of the regular season).

While that means Yamamoto won’t be available for a second start in the NLDS, he could still be an option if the series reaches a decisive fifth game. Skubal and Snell would be available for that potential occasion too. 

In other words, the Dodgers knew that trio would pitch in Games 1-3, and would all be available for Game 5 –– and felt pretty comfortable with whichever order they lined them up.

“They’re all going to pitch this series,” Roberts said, including Game 4 starter Tyler Glasnow as well. “You can put those three or four guys in a hat and kind of make a decision.”

The decision the Dodgers did settle on, they hope, could have benefits longer-term this October too.

If the team does advance past the NLDS, Yamamoto should theoretically be able to pitch twice in a potential NL Championship Series.

And while Roberts noted he was “not discounting this series [against the Braves], because you’ve got to win this series,” he also acknowledged that dynamic.

“I think just kind of looking out, potentially, that just sets up the rotation and Yamamoto better looking forward,” he said.

There were other factors at play in the Dodgers’ pitching decisions.

The Braves ranked just 21st in the majors in OPS against left-handed pitching this year (compared to 11th versus righties), and will now have to face two of the sport’s best southpaws in Skubal and Snell to begin the series (though, it should be noted, the Dodgers were seemingly planning to go this direction before the Braves matchup was even set).

Yamamoto, meanwhile, has been noticeably better on the road (1.77 ERA) than at home (3.13 ERA) this year, only underscoring the club’s confidence in handing him the ball at Truist Park.

That doesn’t mean there’s no risk involved with the move.

Yamamoto had the most productive regular season of any Dodgers starter (14-9 record, 2.53 ERA in team-high 28 starts). He is coming off an historic performance in last year’s playoffs (5-1 record, 1.45 ERA in six postseason outings, including two complete games and his Game 7 save in the World Series on zero days of rest). And if the Dodgers lose Game 1, they could face trouble in their best-of-five series, especially if Braves ace Chris Sale is able to go in Game 2 (and, after that, a potential Game 5).

Still, the Dodgers are confident.

They have the most dominant, star-studded and talent-rich rotation in this year’s playoffs.

They believe it will be the strength of their three-peat quest, no matter which order they start in.

“We have gone through years where our starting rotation hasn’t been as good. In ’24 that wasn’t a strength of our roster. [And still] we won the World Series,” president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “But the quality of life is way more difficult than being able to pencil in a Skubal, a Snell, a Yama, and a Glas.”