NFL Week 5 Survivor picks, analysis: Armageddon of games to sort through

Everyone survived to Week 5.

Very few big upsets last week in the league, as the vast majority of players advanced, with the Vikings and Ravens leading the pack with over 80 percent of entrants in the big Circa Survivor pool.

This week could easily be a bloodbath, though.

There are no favorites of more than one score to choose from this week – you’re walking on eggshells and land mines in this week’s Survivor tournament.

Below we break down my favorite plays for Week 5 of the NFL season.

NFL Week 5 Survivor picks, analysis

Cowboys over Buccaneers

Dallas’ defense is steadily improving this year, and Jalon Daniels, who I actually like, will have a tough time here on short notice.

My model has the Cowboys slightly overvalued on the spread, making them seven-point favorites against eight points on BetMGM.

The Cowboys will easily be the most used team in Survivor this week because they face a team on a short week with an undrafted rookie quarterback.

If Dallas were on the road, I’d be more interested in bailing on them, but on the road, I think they are rightfully the top team in pools this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jalon Daniels (10) rolls out with the ball during a game against the Green Bay Packers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Bengals over Dolphins

Miami has been a disaster this season, but Cincinnati isn’t the top option this week because of injuries.

It looks like Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are battling injuries, which would give most of us a legitimate pause in taking them on the road.

Still, this is the best use of the Bengals you will see all season, so don’t be too afraid to pull the trigger.

Miami is the No. 32 team in DVOA, posting No. 30 in offense and No. 28 in defense, respectively.

The Bengals are rated No. 7 in DVOA, but injury concerns here may need your attention.

Betting on the NFL?

Team to avoid: Lions vs. Cardinals

There’s no way you should be on Detroit this week.

Jahmyr Gibbs looks exhausted and they’re ready to hit the bye week.

The Carolina Panthers just destroyed Detroit’s defense and the Lions might really struggle against Arizona.

Under no circumstances should you be on the Lions, I think the Cardinals win outright.

NFL Week 5 Survivor model picks

Ranking	Team	Survivor Score	Next best use
1	Cowboys vs TB -9.5	76.2	Week 11 vs TEN 70.1%(No. 4 that week)
2	Bengals at MIA -7.5	71.7	Week 18 vs CLE 75.5%(No. 3 that week)
3	Texans at TEN -6.5	68.8	Week 18 vs TEN 74.9%(No. 5 that week)
4	Lions at ARI -5.5	66.3	Week 9 at MIA 76.1%(No. 1 that week)
5	Jaguars vs PHI -4.5	63.1	Week 12 vs TEN 69.6%(No. 1 that week)
6	Ravens at ATL -3.5	60.6	Week 16 vs CLE 81.8%(No. 1 that week)
7	Broncos at LAC -3.5	60.5	Week 13 vs MIA 79.6%(No. 1 that week)
8	Patriots vs LV -3.5	60.4	Week 18 vs MIA 78.1%(No. 1 that week)
9	Commanders vs NYG -3.5	60.2	Week 15 vs ATL 56.9%(No. 12 that week)
10	Bears at GB -2.5	57.5	Week 14 at MIA 71.6%(No. 3 that week)
11	Steelers vs IND -2.5	57.4	Week 8 vs CLE 65.1%(No. 4 that week)
12	Rams vs BUF -2.5	57.3	Week 6 vs ARI 78.3%(No. 1 that week)
13	Seahawks vs SF -2.5	57.3	Week 9 vs ARI 75.6%(No. 2 that week)
14	Vikings at NO -1.5	54.6	Week 12 vs ATL 65.4%(No. 3 that week)
15	Jets vs CLE -1.5	54.3	Week 7 vs MIA 67.4%(No. 3 that week)
16	Browns at NYJ +1.5	45.7	Week 12 vs LV 48.0%(No. 20 that week)
17	Saints vs MIN +1.5	45.4	Week 9 vs CLE 64.6%(No. 8 that week)
18	49ers at SEA +2.5	42.7	Week 9 vs LV 73.7%(No. 3 that week)
19	Bills at LAR +2.5	42.7	Week 11 vs MIA 87.1%(No. 1 that week)
20	Colts at PIT +2.5	42.6	Week 10 vs MIA 75.0%(No. 1 that week)
21	Packers vs CHI +2.5	42.5	Week 15 vs MIA 79.9%(No. 1 that week)
22	Giants at WAS +3.5	39.8	Week 15 vs CLE 64.1%(No. 5 that week)
23	Raiders at NE +3.5	39.6	Week 16 vs TEN 55.7%(No. 8 that week)
24	Chargers vs DEN +3.5	39.5	Week 16 at MIA 72.7%(No. 2 that week)
25	Falcons vs BAL +3.5	39.4	Week 14 at CLE 53.4%(No. 13 that week)
26	Eagles at JAX +4.5	36.9	Week 9 vs NYG 69.4%(No. 5 that week)
27	Cardinals vs DET +5.5	33.7	Week 17 vs LV 54.2%(No. 10 that week)
28	Titans vs HOU +6.5	31.2	Week 7 vs CLE 57.4%(No. 8 that week)
29	Dolphins vs CIN +7.5	28.3	Week 12 vs NYJ 39.6%(No. 28 that week)
30	Buccaneers at DAL +9.5	23.8	Week 8 vs ATL 61.7%(No. 9 that week)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.

Ekjhalak Hindi