NFL Week 7 Survivor picks: Strategy, analysis, model picks

Everyone got burned on the Rams last week – we tried to talk you out of taking them.

The only issue was that the other three options we proposed last week also lost.

The Giants were 1.5-point favorites and jumped out to a 10-point lead before falling apart, while the Titans pulled off their first win of the season as seven-point underdogs.

If you’re still alive, you probably backed the Patriots to beat the Jets.

We move on to Week 7, if you’re still alive, with our best survivor picks for this week, though you will notice that I’m fading the Texans for now, until we see who is starting at quarterback for Big Blue.

NFL Week 7 Survivor picks

Jets (-5.5) over Dolphins

I believe in Aaron Glenn? My model doesn’t like the spread here; my model has the Jets -4.5 against the spread, so you’re getting one rather meaningless point.

Regardless, the Dolphins are rated No. 32 in DVOA. The Jets are probably the worst team you’ll ever back in survivor, but they’re sizeable favorites and even off a bye week, Miami doesn’t do much of anything well.

They’re rated No. 31 in offensive DVOA and No. 30 in defensive DVOA. Miami is also No. 20 in net yards per play, while the Jets sit at No. 13.

It’s not a mismatch by any means, but the Jets are an intriguing option to get a leg up on your opponents.

Vikings (-6.5) over Colts

Hand up, I figured the Titans would cover, but Indianapolis losing outright at home is a mortal embarrassment that cost Chris Ballard his job.

The Colts are allowing the most yards per play in the league (6.0) and posting just 4.7 YPP on offense (25th).

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray (1) and wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) look on against the New Orleans Saints during the second half of a game at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Naturally, they have the second-worst net yards per play in the league behind only the Cardinals.

The Colts face the No. 1 defense in DVOA, and Daniel Jones won’t be able to handle that in a hostile environment.

This is the best time to use the Vikings all season, with the next best time being Week 12 against the Falcons.

Betting on the NFL?

NFL Week 7 Survivor model picks

#	Team & this week	Score	Next best use
1	Texans vs NYG -8.5	73.7	Week 18 vs TEN 75.8%(No. 3)
2	Vikings vs IND -5.5	66.1	Week 12 vs ATL 63.5%(No. 4)
3	Rams at LV -5.5	66.1	Week 10 at ARI 73.5%(No. 1)
4	Jets vs MIA -5.5	66.0	Week 12 at MIA 56.5%(No. 7 that week)
5	Broncos at ARI -4.5	63.6	Week 13 vs MIA 80.0%(No. 1 that week)
6	49ers at ATL -4.5	63.4	Week 9 vs LV 72.4%(No. 4 that week)
7	Cowboys at PHI -4.5	63.0	Week 11 vs TEN 73.4%(No. 3 that week)
8	Panthers vs TB -3.5	60.3	Week 18 vs ATL 60.7%(No. 9 that week)
9	Lions vs GB -3.5	60.3	Week 14 vs TEN 76.4%(No. 1 that week)
10	Steelers vs NO -2.5 neutral	57.5	Week 8 vs CLE 65.2%(No. 5 that week)
11	Ravens vs CIN -2.5	57.4	Week 16 vs CLE 76.4%(No. 1 that week)
12	Bears vs NE -2.5	57.3	Week 14 at MIA 71.1%(No. 3 that week)
13	Seahawks vs KC -2.5	57.3	Week 9 vs ARI 77.5%(No. 1 that week)
14	Browns at TEN -1.5	54.6	Week 12 vs LV 50.1%(No. 16 that week)
15	Titans vs CLE +1.5	45.4	Week 13 vs WAS 45.1%(No. 17 that week)
16	Chiefs at SEA +2.5	42.7	Week 11 vs ARI 78.0%(No. 2 that week)
17	Patriots at CHI +2.5	42.7	Week 18 vs MIA 77.5%(No. 2 that week)
18	Bengals at BAL +2.5	42.6	Week 8 vs TEN 74.8%(No. 1 that week)
19	Saints vs PIT +2.5 neutral field	42.5	Week 9 vs CLE 60.7%(No. 8 that week)
20	Packers at DET +3.5	39.7	Week 15 vs MIA 76.9%(No. 1 that week)
21	Buccaneers at CAR +3.5	39.7	Week 8 vs ATL 56.1%(No. 12 that week)
22	Eagles vs DAL +4.5	37.0	Week 9 vs NYG 68.0%(No. 6 that week)
23	Falcons vs SF +4.5	36.6	Week 17 vs NO 52.6%(No. 11 that week)
24	Cardinals vs DEN +4.5	36.4	Week 15 vs NYJ 52.5%(No. 16 that week)
25	Dolphins at NYJ +5.5	34.0	Week 12 vs NYJ 43.5%(No. 26 that week)
26	Raiders vs LAR +5.5	33.9	Week 16 vs TEN 61.0%(No. 5 that week)
27	Colts at MIN +5.5	33.9	Week 10 vs MIA 73.0%(No. 2 that week)
28	Giants at HOU +8.5	26.3	Week 15 vs CLE 59.3%(No. 7 that week)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.

Ekjhalak Hindi