Brazil's runoff: Lula's legacy vs. Bolsonaro's dynasty

A combination of file photos shows Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brasília on Oct. 1, 2026, and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro at a rally in Belo Horizonte on Aug. 17, 2026. The two face off in the Oct. 25 runoff.

Evaristo Sa and Gledston Tavares/AFP via Getty Images


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Evaristo Sa and Gledston Tavares/AFP via Getty Images

RIO DE JANEIRO — Sunday’s presidential runoff in Brazil could prolong the career of a political giant—or usher in a new generation of a political dynasty.

Voter energy has surged ahead of the runoff, with rallies for each candidate drawing tens of thousands of people in major cities and packing plazas and university campuses nationwide

Many polls show a race within the margin of error between left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round of voting on Oct. 4 and currently leads polls, though some surveys show the gap narrowing in recent days.

A Bolsonaro victory would extend his family’s influence over the Brazilian right, which in previous decades was dominated by more moderate figures. A close ally of President Trump, Flávio Bolsonaro would, if elected, reinforce a broader rightward shift across much of Latin America, where conservative candidates have made gains in recent elections.

“We have a new feeling of urgency,” said 40-year-old corporate event planner Camila Sixel, referring to Bolsonaro’s first-place finish earlier in the month. Sixel has been campaigning for Lula in Rio de Janeiro.

“I’m really worried about the future for women, the fight against racism and social inequality, and the protection of vulnerable people,” Sixel said.

Lula, 80, is running for his fourth nonconsecutive term and says this will be his last election. He has been at the center of the Brazilian left for a generation, first taking office in 2003 and falling out of favor with many voters in the 2010s when he was embroiled in a corruption scandal and jailed. His convictions were later annulled on procedural grounds.

Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro to win the presidency in 2022. The elder Bolsonaro is under house arrest while serving his sentence for plotting to overturn that election result, but his son, who is 45, has pledged to pardon him if elected.

The younger Bolsonaro’s other proposals include trimming the size of the Brazilian state to boost economic growth. Those economic proposals became one of many points of contention in the election’s first televised debate last Sunday night.

“Have you seen how things are going in Argentina, and are you going to keep saying that Milei is your model?” asked Lula, referring to Argentine President Javier Milei’s austerity program and the country’s rising poverty rate.

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