Trump backlash has turned California bluer than ever — but there’s a glimmer of hope for Republicans

Tuesday’s blue wave hit California hard, sweeping away Republican candidates, congressional seats, and hopes of making gains. Already a heavily Democratic state, California is delivering to Republicans another ugly election.

My take? This election was about Donald Trump. California’s No Party Preference voters are fed up with the high cost of living and upset about perceptions of corruption in the White House. They’re punishing Republicans for it. 

Republicans running for the Legislature get the same treatment as those running for statewide office. And it’s particularly ugly for congressional Republicans (what few we have in the state).

This election was about Donald Trump. Getty Images

Start with the statewide numbers. Steve Hilton has received about 36% so far against Xavier Becerra for governor. Republican candidates for lieutenant governor, attorney general, controller, treasurer and secretary of state are all sitting around that same miserable number.

That’s the Republican base and a few conservative independents. I doubt those numbers will move much as ballots come in.

Now look at Sonja Shaw, a conservative. She’s received nearly 43% for superintendent of public instruction, a nonpartisan office. Without an R next to her name, Shaw outpaces Hilton by nearly seven points. The partisan tag is the “cheat sheet” that protest voters need.

You think that’s an accident? I don’t.

Insurance commissioner is different: both candidates are Democrats. Former San Francisco Supervisor Jane Kim, endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, leads state Sen. Ben Allen.

And then there’s Congress. What a mess.

Proposition 50’s gerrymandered, Democrat-friendly map had Republicans hoping they might hang on to five or six of California’s 52 House seats. That now looks like wishful thinking, even by California Republican standards.

And then there’s Congress. What a mess. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Reps. James Gallagher and Kevin Kiley have lost their races in heavily Democratic districts drawn under Proposition 50. Gallagher lost to state Sen. Mike McGuire in Northern California. Kiley lost to former state Sen. Richard Pan near Sacramento.

Longtime Republican Rep. David Valadao is losing badly to progressive Randy Villegas in the Central Valley. Down in San Diego County, GOP San Diego Supervisor Jim Desmond trails Marni von Wilpert in the district Darrell Issa once represented.

Tom McClintock and Vince Fong are holding their seats. Ken Calvert leads Young Kim in the 40th District. Jay Obernolte is barely hanging on in the High Desert, and plenty of votes are still left to count.

California could end up with just three or four Republicans in its 52-member congressional delegation. In a state of nearly 40 million people. That’s astonishing, and depressing.

And a few Democrats are getting their own unpleasant surprises.

In Los Angeles, Democratic socialist Angela Gonzales-Torres is projected to defeat Rep. Jimmy Gomez. Up in wine country, longtime Rep. Mike Thompson trails Eric Jones, a younger challenger with money to spend. Voters want change, and seniority isn’t protecting anyone.

Attendees celebrate at an election night event for California Democratic gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026, in Sacramento, Calif. AP Photo/Noah Berger

Here are the latest Opinion stories on the 2026 election:


Sacramento isn’t offering Republicans any comfort.

Conservative state Sen. Tony Strickland trails Chris Duncan in his Orange County-based district. In eastern San Diego County, former City Attorney Mara Elliott leads Kristie Bruce-Lane for the seat being vacated by term-limited Senate Republican Leader Brian Jones.

GOP Assembly members Josh Hoover, Jeff Gonzalez, Greg Wallis and Leticia Castillo are all behind. Hoover trails Amy Slavensky, Gonzalez trails Ida Obeso-Martinez, Wallis trails Leila Namvar, and Castillo trails Clarissa Cervantes. Democrats already have overwhelming majorities in Sacramento. And judging from these returns, they’re about to get even more overwhelming.

The ballot measures don’t fit that story so neatly.

Proposition 39, the voter identification measure, has received just 41% support so far and is projected to fail. Proposition 43, restoring the two-thirds requirement for local special taxes, is losing. So is Proposition 45, which would reform California’s burdensome environmental review laws.

Yet voters are rejecting Proposition 40, the billionaire wealth tax, while making permanent the income tax bracket that applies only to millionaires. They also approved more borrowing for housing programs but appear set to reject a measure meant to ease regulations on new housing construction. Very confusing!

Los Angeles has its own drama.

Xavier Becerra wins the California governor race on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Nathan Weyland for CA Post

As of this writing, Mayor Karen Bass is fighting for her political life against Nithya Raman, who leads 51.67% to 48.33% so far, a margin of just 26,124 votes.

There’s an irony Bass probably doesn’t appreciate. Late-counted ballots pushed Raman past Republican Spencer Pratt in June and into the runoff. Now late votes seem likely send Raman to the mayor’s office instead of Bass.

California takes weeks to count ballots. According to Associated Press estimates, roughly 40% of the state’s expected vote remains uncounted as of Wednesday. Some people celebrating today may be conceding next week.

Whatever happens in the remaining close races, independent voters have made their point: They’re fed up with Trump, and California Republicans are paying the price.

The only good news for Republicans, nationally and here in California, is that after a disaster like this, it’s hard to imagine things getting much worse.

Jon Fleischman, a longtime strategist in California politics, writes at SoDoesItMatter.com

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