Why New England’s Republican Governors Withstood the Blue Wave
Peter Gallagher, a voter in liberal Townshend, Vt., filled in the ovals for Democrat after Democrat at the polls last Tuesday. But when it came to the race for governor, Mr. Gallagher, 67, made a notable exception: He voted for the Republican incumbent, Gov. Phil Scott.
So did Joanne Davis of Putney, who said she appreciated Mr. Scott’s low-key persona: “He’s a normal person. Not crazy, not scary.”
Vermont voters helped drive the blue wave that stunned the country, casting out two dozen Republicans from the state Legislature and replacing them with Democrats, who regained supermajorities in both chambers. But enough also stuck by Mr. Scott, a soft-spoken moderate, to deliver him a record sixth term, in a state that favored Vice President Kamala Harris over President Trump in 2024 by one of the widest margins in the country.
Mr. Scott’s success in a liberal New England state — and the success of Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican who was re-elected last week in neighboring New Hampshire — offer a glimmer of hope for a party freshly battered by rejection. In different ways, the two governors have survived by leaning into an old-school strain of Republicanism, melding fiscal pragmatism with a moderate approach on social issues. Mr. Scott, in particular, has also explicitly separated himself from President Trump.
“He’s the only Republican I’ve ever voted for,” Mr. Gallagher said of Mr. Scott as he loaded groceries into his car outside a supermarket in Brattleboro, Vt., last week. “I like the way he crosses the aisle and works with people — that’s the biggest thing.”
Both governors fit a prototype with deep roots in New England, a region better known for liberalism. In Massachusetts, voters have frequently sought to keep liberal legislators in check by electing moderate Republican governors like William Weld and Charlie Baker.
New Hampshire was long known for a “leave-us-alone type of Republican, with a kind of libertarian flavor to it, and a focus on the small footprint of government,” said Dante Scala, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire.
As the national Republican Party shifted toward a new model over the last half century, courting socially conservative and religious voters, the influence of New England’s fiscal conservatives waned, he said. Now, the moderate, compromise-seeking approach modeled by Mr. Scott and Ms. Ayotte may gain new national relevance.
Ms. Ayotte, who was first elected governor in 2024, appears to have endured in part by showing restraint on social issues that Republicans elsewhere have gone to battle over. She vetoed legislation this year that would have rolled back discrimination protections for transgender people. And she has kept a campaign promise to leave New Hampshire’s relatively permissive abortion laws alone.
“She said she would put those issues on the back burner as governor, and she has done that,” Dr. Scala said. “It’s a key question for the Republican Party, whether they continue to put culture wars and social issues at the center of the party’s future identity.”
Both Ms. Ayotte and Mr. Scott faced serious challenges this year from Democrats whose campaigns gained unexpected momentum as the national mood turned against incumbents. Ms. Ayotte won, 51 to 47 percent, after hammering her opponent, Cinde Warmington, for her brief stint as a pharmaceutical lobbyist. In Vermont, Mr. Scott won, 52 to 46 percent, — the closest race of the six he has run for governor, against Amanda Janoo, a progressive Democrat.
New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states in the country where governors’ terms are two years instead of four.
Ms Janoo, in her first run for office, won 71 percent of votes in the state’s largest city, Burlington. One of her main proposals was to raise taxes on Vermont’s highest earners to help pay for universal primary health care. Mr. Scott, who called for cutting taxes, won by a similarly wide margin in the state’s traditional Republican strongholds: its rural western edge and towns along its remote northern border.
Ms. Janoo, whose background is in economics, argued that Mr. Scott’s trickle-down model had failed to deliver on affordability, and proposed that the state instead “build its economy from the bottom up” rather than relying on outside investors.
But even some Vermont voters who longed for change gravitated back to the familiar instead. Michelle Mortimer, a registered nurse and small business owner from Williamsville, felt that Mr. Scott had served long enough. She watched three debates, hoping to be persuaded that Ms. Janoo had a solid plan to rein in health care costs.
“I was begging her to say something to make me vote for her, but she had nothing concrete,” said Ms. Mortimer, 56, who ended up voting for Mr. Scott. “Her answers were soft and squishy.”
Mr. Scott was also helped by voters like Anne Wheeler, 44, of Putney, who until last week had never voted for him. Ms. Wheeler, who works in a factory doing quality control, said she voted for Mr. Scott out of frustration with the state’s high cost of living. She increasingly believes that “progressive liberals are hurting, not helping, Vermont.”
“Vermont is only for the rich or poor,” she said outside the grocery store in Brattleboro. “There are no jobs or housing for the working class. It’s getting harder and harder to stay here — I don’t want to work two or three jobs to survive.”
Mr. Scott has long talked about affordability, and he blamed rising taxes on the Democrat-controlled legislature. Voters rebelled two years ago, ousting two dozen Democrats in the wake of a staggering property tax increase. Last week, they reinstated many of the same Democrats.
The governor’s bipartisan appeal dates to his early days in state government, said Paul Dame, chairman of the Vermont Republican Party. Mr. Scott was elected lieutenant governor in 2010, and served under Gov. Peter Shumlin, a Democrat.
His understated manner, and roots in blue-collar Barre, made Mr. Scott a natural choice for working-class voters. So did his weekend passion for stock car racing and his winning record at the Thunder Road racetrack in Barre.
“While the Democratic Party was becoming more elite, he was connecting with working-class Democrats and building that coalition,” said Mr. Dame.
Mr. Scott also let it be known that he voted for President Biden in 2020 and for Ms. Harris in 2024. But he did so without drama. “He doesn’t go on cable news shows,” said Jason Maulucci, his policy director and campaign manager. “He doesn’t go out of his way to antagonize or attack. People in Vermont value that.”
(Mr. Scott did not commit to an interview for this article; Ms. Ayotte did not respond to requests for comment.)
Mr. Scott’s brand — unflashy dependability — is not exciting. But he leaned into his image as “Governor Dad,” as some have called him, during the campaign, warning voters that the last two years of the Trump administration would be “incredibly chaotic” and asking them: “Who do you want at the wheel?”
Even as she made the case for change, Ms. Janoo recognized the tempting solace of the status quo.
“I think we’re all pretty traumatized,” she said on Wednesday. “In that context, I understand holding onto what feels secure.”