Mexico vs. Ecuador World Cup prediction: Odds, picks, best bet for Round of 32

One of the most electric atmospheres of the World Cup is expected under the lights at the infamous Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Tuesday evening.
Mexico will take on Ecuador, as the hosts look for their first knockout-stage win at a World Cup since 1986, the last time the tournament was played on Mexican soil.
Ecuador is in the Round of 32 thanks to a dramatic come-from-behind victory against Germany in their last match.
Mexico has been installed as a -170 favorite to advance at DraftKings Sportsbook, and they are +125 to get the job done inside 90 minutes.
World Cup: Mexico vs. Ecuador odds, picks
If this match goes to form, it should be physical, dramatic, and full of emotion.
Ecuador and Mexico won’t be confused with the most dynamic sides in this competition, but they are both dogged defensive teams that are never shy about flying into tackles. You can expect a lot of that on Tuesday, as both El Tri and La Tri know that their lack of offensive firepower leaves them with no margin for error in this tilt.
Mexico cruised through Group A with three wins over South Africa, South Korea, and Czechia, and El Tri are one of just two teams (Spain) yet to allow a goal in this tournament.
That said, you can call into question the quality of competition for Javier Aguirre’s side. The same can’t be said of Ecuador, which had to deal with Germany, Ivory Coast, and Curacao.
And while you would have liked to have seen better execution in front of the goal from Ecuador, the defense has been superb, and should make them a real chore to deal with in knockout soccer, which is often decided by which team can keep its wits in front of its own goal.
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It’s also worth noting that Ecuador’s attack, as dormant as it has been, has some serious playmakers in its ranks, and has a higher ceiling than we’ve seen through the first three matches.
Mexico’s unblemished record in this tournament is certainly impressive, but they’re taking a significant step up in class here, and I wonder if the betting market is overrating El Tri based on three matches against poor opposition.
Ecuador has some value here, but I would avoid the three-way moneyline because there is a decent chance this one goes beyond 90 minutes.
The Play: Ecuador to advance (+135, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.