Fed’s Warsh Says Inflation Poses Less Risk Than a Few Weeks Ago

Kevin M. Warsh said inflation risks had eased in the weeks since he took over as chairman of the Federal Reserve, as he reiterated his pledge to deliver price stability after an extended period in which the central bank had missed its 2 percent target.
“Expectations of inflation over the first four weeks of this period, they’ve come down. Inflation risks have come down,” Mr. Warsh said on Wednesday at the European Central Bank’s annual gathering of international policymakers and economists in Sintra, Portugal.
Mr. Warsh spoke on a panel alongside Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central Bank, Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England and Tiff Macklem, who heads up the Bank of Canada.
Central bankers from around the world have been grappling with how to respond to the jump in inflation caused by higher energy prices from the war in Iran, as well as a boom in artificial intelligence that has stoked prices. A preliminary cease-fire deal between the United States and Iran recently sent oil prices back to prewar levels. Still, especially in the United States, measures of underlying inflation, which strip out volatile categories such as food and energy, remain high.
For policymakers, the difficult question is whether they need to raise interest rates to extinguish high inflation, or whether they can afford to be patient and wait for inflation to retreat on its own.
Mr. Warsh on Wednesday declined to say whether the Fed would consider raising rates at its next meeting, at the end of the month. This kept with his opposition to provide signals about where interest rates might be headed in the future — known as “forward guidance.” He has argued that it risks boxing the Fed in and making it slow to adjust course if the economic circumstances change.
Rather, Mr. Warsh emphasized the Fed’s commitment to getting inflation back down to target.
“If there were people in households or the business sector or the financial markets who thought that this central bank was going to be comfortable with an inflation objective above 2 percent, well, I guess they’d be disappointed,” he said.
“We’re going to deliver price stability in the U.S.,” Mr. Warsh added, noting that “the tactics, the strategy, and the rest, that’s still to come.”
The comments from Mr. Warsh were the first with his international counterparts since taking over the Fed in May. At his first Fed policy meeting in mid-June, Mr. Warsh emphasized that he would usher in a “new chapter” at the central bank.
Ms. Lagarde has also said that forward guidance was no longer necessary and that European policymakers will react to economic data at each policy meeting. Central bankers have been adapting how they communicate in the face of heightened uncertainty after shocks — including President Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran — that make forecasting inflation even more challenging.
Less than two weeks ago, the European Central Bank raised interest rates for the first time in nearly three years on forecasts that inflation would stay uncomfortably high next year as well. But shortly after the decision, oil prices dropped as the U.S. and Iran said they would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for the export of fuel and other commodities. Despite falling oil prices, Ms. Lagarde has defended the rate increase, arguing that the past four months of higher energy prices warranted a response.
Ms. Lagarde said the risks that inflation rises much further and the economy weakens more have become more “broadly balanced” than they were a few weeks ago. Inflation was lower than expected in June, at 2.8 percent on average across the eurozone, data published Wednesday showed.
While inflation is also above the 2 percent target in Britain, the central bank there hasn’t raised rates this year because of the “softening economy,” Mr. Bailey said on the panel.
Mr. Macklem said Canada was in a similar situation — high inflation and a weakening economy — creating a “dilemma” for policymakers wary of raising rates too fast and adding a further drag on economic inactivity.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” he said. “Those risks could shift quickly.”
Broadly, investors have moderated their expectations of how much central banks will need to raise rates to push down inflation this year. Traders are betting that the Bank of England might raise interest rates once by the end of the year, having earlier expected up to three increases. The E.C.B. might raise one more time this year, markets imply.
For Fed officials, the challenge is whether higher interest rates will be necessary to make good on Mr. Warsh’s promise to get inflation back to the Fed’s 2 percent target after five years of overshooting it. At the central bank’s meeting last month, half of the officials expected the Fed to raise rates at least once this year, while the other half has signaled no adjustments or just one quarter-point reduction. Mr. Warsh did not submit a projection.
The case for an increase hinges on the view that rates at the current 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent level are not restraining the economy much when inflation has sharply accelerated in recent months.
One source is artificial intelligence. Mr. Warsh acknowledged that the massive investment in A.I. was showing up on the “demand side” of the economy but that it was up to the central bank to decide if it was inflationary.
Mr. Warsh was also asked about Mr. Trump’s demands that the Fed lower rates, to which he affirmed the importance of the central bank operating free of political meddling.
“We’ve been an independent central bank for a very long time and we’re going to be an independent central bank at this moment and you’re going to see no changes on that,” Mr. Warsh said.