Team USA looked like a force to be reckoned with in the group stage of the 2026 World Cup, but all of that goes out the window now. A slip-up against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 on Wednesday night would spoil what could be a crowning moment for the U.S. Men’s National Team.

The Americans are also in uncharted waters.

For the first time in modern history, the Yanks are a heavy favorite in an elimination game at the World Cup. The only other time they were projected to win a knockout match was in 2010, when they were slightly favored over Ghana. The Black Stars won that match, 2-1.

The last time the Americans won a knockout match at the World Cup was 24 years ago in South Korea.

While that 2002 group had plenty of spunk, they were nowhere near as talented as the current crop of stars.

After dismantling Paraguay and Australia in the group stage, and losing an entertaining, meaningless match against Turkey, Team USA will be presented with a different kind of challenge against Bosnia.

While Paraguay and Australia sat deep and tried to counter with speed against Team USA, the Bosnians will try to turn this into a backyard brawl. They’re a big and physical side, and they know their best chance of pulling this upset — and it would be a big one, as the bookmakers at DraftKings have installed the Yanks as a -700 favorite to advance — is by playing disciplined defense and then trying to get a goal on a set piece.

Bosnia nearly pulled that exact game plan off against Canada in its first match of the tournament. The Dragons defended deep, got a goal on a set piece, and tried to hold on for the remaining 75 minutes. The Canadians scored a late equalizer, but that match still serves as a warning to the Yanks.

That said, the Americans are much better equipped than Canada to unlock a low block.

You need to be quick and decisive with your ball movement against a compact defense, and the Americans have been just that thanks to their string-pullers in the midfield, Tyler Adams and Weston McKennie.

It is also critical that the Stars & Stripes can offer a variety of different looks going forward. Christian Pulisic can dribble by you on one flank, while Sergino Dest can fly by you on the other. They should be able to pull the Bosnian backline towards the sidelines all night.

And, should all else fail, the Americans have a talismanic striker at the tip of the spear, Folarin Balogun, to occupy Bosnia’s two center backs.

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The 24-year-old has been an absolute menace in this tournament so far.

With so many attacking options, it would take a special effort from this Bosnian defense not to get stretched and pulled out of shape. Paraguay and Australia couldn’t pull it off, and I don’t expect the Bosnians will either.

One goal for the Americans would force Bosnia out of its shell and into an uncomfortable situation, and this defense is far from impregnable. Switzerland fired four past the Dragons, and Qatar managed to get on the board and create three big scoring chances in their most recent match.

Team USA should be able to handle this assignment without too much fuss.

The Play: United States -1.5 goals (+112, FanDuel)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.