We were able to steal a win yesterday in the Twins vs. Yankees game. It was a fairly nerve-wracking game because I took the under. The Twins ended up scoring six runs, and then the Yankees scored one late to get it to seven runs. Luckily, we were able to get the bullpen to close the doors. I am hopeful we can keep this luck on our side as we’ve snuck in a few close calls lately. Tonight, we get a new series between the Diamondbacks and the Padres.

With a win tonight, the Arizona Diamondbacks will be back to .500 at 45-45. They have been bad on the road, struggling to a 17-25 road record. I think that Arizona has done a very good job on offense this season, despite trading away quite a few players over the past year. They still have a lot of talent on the roster, but the question has to be asked if they are going to make more trades soon. Ketel Marte is a guy who has had his name floating around the trade rumors quite a bit. He could be a good addition to most playoff teams. However, if the Diamondbacks want to go the other way, they can add pitching to try to improve on their team’s 4.28 ERA.

Even if the Diamondbacks add Tarik Skubal, which isn’t likely, they would still be a very long shot to make the postseason via the division. They have a better chance at getting one of the three Wild Card spots. Today’s starter is Brandon Pfaadt, who is not in the same realm as Skubal (but, then again, who is). For the season, Pfaadt has bounced between the bullpen and the rotation. This is just his fifth start of the season, but he is coming off a start against the Giants. He went 5.1 innings, allowed three hits, and just one solo homer. He faced the Padres earlier in the season and went three innings, allowing four earned runs.

The San Diego Padres are in an identical spot to the Diamondbacks. With a win here, they will get back to .500 for the season. The Padres have to be one of the most frustrating teams in baseball. On paper, they should be one of the most elite clubs in baseball. They have a ton of talented hitters and a few reliable arms, but for whatever reason, it seems like every season is a struggle. Perhaps it is a lack of power from some key guys like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts. Maybe it is that Manny Machado is batting .189. There could be a chance that all three of those guys return to their normal production and propel the Padres to another postseason appearance.

San Diego Padres’ Manny Machado (13) lines an RBI single against the San Francisco Giants during the sixth inning of a baseball game. (AP Photo/D. Ross Cameron)

In order to do that, they will need help from their pitching staff. One of the main guys that they will lean on is today’s starter, Walker Buehler. For the year, Buehler is 5-4 with a 4.61 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. He has been a better pitcher at home than he has on the road, though. When pitching in San Diego, he has thrown to a 3.13 ERA. He had a great June, but his first July start, he was rocked. He allowed nine earned runs on seven hits over four innings. He has to be looking to get back on the mound and rebound from that rough outing. He hasn’t faced the Diamondbacks this season.

PADRES’ FERNANDO TATIS JR SNAPS HOME RUN DROUGHT WITH THUNDEROUS DINGER: ‘ABOUT F—ING TIME’

Over his career, Pfaadt has allowed Padres hitters to bat .258 against him with four homers and 18 RBIs. I mentioned Machado’s struggles this season, but he is hitting .368 against Pfaadt. Bogaerts is hitting just .167 against him. Jake Cronenworth is another one who might be worth adding to your daily lineups or prop bets, as he is hitting .409 against Pfaadt. Buehler has been much better against the Diamondbacks hitters, holding them to a .194 average over 98 at-bats. Pavin Smith has been particularly bad, going 1-for-15 against him.

The San Diego Padres logo is displayed on the field at PETCO Park before a game against the St. Louis Cardinals on April 3, 2024, in San Diego, California. (Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)

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Smith isn’t plus money for the night, so I’ll avoid that prop. For the actual game, I’m planning to play the Padres at -124. I think Buehler will rebound from his horrendous last start. I also think his history, coupled with his home performances, give San Diego the edge in this game. Give me the Padres -124.

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