Democrat Cait Conley holds a 6-percentage-point lead over two-term Republican Rep. Michael Lawler in the race for a hotly contested New York swing district, according to a poll released Wednesday by House Democrats.

Conley, an Army veteran, leads Lawler 51% to 45%, among likely voters in the Hudson Valley’s 17th congressional district in a survey conducted by FM3 Research for the House Majority PAC that the congressman dismissed as “cooked up.”

The survey, conducted June 27-July 1, found that 55% of voters in the district have an unfavorable view of Lawler, while 39% have a favorable view.

President Trump’s popularity is also underwater, with 60% viewing him unfavorably and 38% viewing him favorably.

The poll results are from 509 likely voters and the margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. 

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The 17th District includes Rockland and Putnam counties, northern Westchester County and parts of southern Dutchess County.

The independent Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up in what could be one of the marquee House contests in the country.

Lawler, a former state assemblyman, is seeking a third-term. He fought to largely restore the state and local tax deduction on federal income tax returns and has been a staunch supporter of Israel.

He knocked off ex-Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who chaired the House Democratic Campaign Committee, in a squeaker in 2022.

Lawler handily defeated ex-Congressman Mondaire Jones in 2024.

Conley won a competitive Democratic primary to face off against Lawler.

The outcome of House races in New York could determine which party controls the House of Representatives. Republicans hold a six seat majority, 218-212 with four vacancies and one independent member.

Conley, a West Point Military Academy graduate, worked as director of counterterrorism on the National Security Council in the Biden administration. She previously served in the US Army and was deployed overseas six times.

“Mike Lawler is a slimy politician who has consistently voted to raise gas prices, cut health care, and make life more expensive. NY-17 has had enough and in November, Cait Conley will be elected to Congress,” said House Majority PAC spokesman CJ Warnke.

The Lawler camp dismissed the “cooked up” poll.

“No one with half a brain believes this made up poll cooked up by a far left group,” said Lawler campaign spokesman Chris Russell.

The Lawler camp turned its fire on Conley.

“What voters do care about is why Cait Conley is ducking debates with Congressman Lawler so she can continue to hide her corrupt, no-show job with AI and big tech companies that pays her over $300k per year, and why she wants to raise taxes by $4,000 a year on Hudson Valley families when she’s never paid taxes here herself,” the spokesperson said.

Lawler has previously raised issues with Con­ley’s con­sult­ing work with two tech com­pa­nies, Primer AI and Hid­den Level, that do busi­ness with the de­fense de­part­ment but also have re­la­tion­ships with Palan­tir, a com­pany known to pro­vide ICE with tech­ni­cal sup­port in track­ing and ap­pre­hend­ing im­mi­grants.

Republicans spent money attacking Conley during the Democratic primary, indicating they believed she would be the strongest challenger for Lawler.