Hundreds of California college programs are facing renewed scrutiny after federal data revealed that many graduates earn less than those with only a high school diploma, placing these schools at risk of losing federal student loan access unless their outcomes improve.

A new federal requirement that took effect this month requires colleges, universities and certificate programs to prove graduates earn at least as much as the median worker in their state with only a high school diploma.

In California, that benchmark is about $18 an hour, or roughly $36,000 a year.

An analysis by Michael Itzkowitz — president of the HEA Group — found about 90% of nearly 3,000 California higher education programs met that standard.

Yet about 300 programs missed the mark, with many concentrated in fields such as cosmetology, medical assisting, theater, and fine arts.

If these programs continue to fall short of the earnings benchmark, students could lose access to federal loans as early as July 1, 2028. Schools, however, still have at least two years to boost graduate earnings.

Many of the underperforming programs are run by for-profit colleges, institutions that have already been under the microscope for years over concerns of student outcomes and high tuition costs.

Public institutions also made the list, with theater and fine arts programs at eight California State University campuses and three University of California campuses coming under fire.

Over 30 California programs in fine arts, music, theater, film, and photography failed to pass the new earnings test.

By comparison, about 100 similar programs cleared the federal bar, such as UC Berkeley’s film program and fine arts programs at San Diego City College and the University of Southern California, where graduates reported earning over $70,000 four years after graduation.

Among the schools drawing attention is the California Institute of the Arts near Santa Clarita. Federal data shows graduates of its fine arts, film and photography programs earned just under $30,000 a year four years after completing their degrees.

School officials countered that the federal data fails to capture how artistic careers often take longer to flourish, or that some graduates deliberately choose creative paths over higher-paying corporate roles.

“It’s hard to imagine CalArts without an undergraduate film or arts program,” Dean Ranu Mukherjee told CalMatters. “It’s in our name.”

Other educators have also pushed back.

“It’s an overly broad benchmark,” Angelica Muro, chair of the visual arts and music department at Cal State Monterey Bay, wrote in an email to CalMatters, arguing the rule “undercuts the societal benefits of critical thinking and the immense sociocultural value held within the arts.”

The requirement stems from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed into law on July 4 last year and took effect this month.

Unless these struggling programs can prove their graduates earn at least $36,000 a year, students could start losing access to federal loans in 2028.