Tropical Storm Bertha is the second named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, and it’s expected to track along the northern Gulf Coast for several days, hitting Gulf communities with up to four feet of storm surge and sustained winds as high as 50 miles per hour.

Forecasters don’t expect Bertha to strengthen into a hurricane. But warmer waters in the Atlantic means the risk of destructive storms for the season is still high.

Unusually warm Gulf waters increase risk of powerful storms

Forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University predict fewer storms than average during the 2026 hurricane season. That’s in part because of a strong El Niño. This weather pattern drives up average global temperatures and generally tamps down hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

But abnormally warm temperatures in the Atlantic can also increase the likelihood of stronger storms, says Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist at WFLA-TV in Tampa Bay, Fla. Atmospheric conditions play a large role, but Berardelli compares the warm water’s impact on storms to fuel for a car.

“The Gulf is high octane water for a storm right now because it’s warmer than normal,” Berardelli said.

Sea surface temperatures are unusually high in the part of the Atlantic where hurricanes are born. Temperatures are higher in part because the oceans have absorbed most of the extra heat trapped by planet-warming pollution from burning oil, gas and coal.

In the last 30 years, while the numbers of hurricanes have decreased, the percentage of more powerful category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased, said Klotzbach, from Colorado State University.

“Overall, very broad brush, when you have warmer waters, that does tend to load the dice towards stronger storms,” Klotzbach said.

Being prepared for hurricane season

The biggest piece of advice: make an evacuation plan ahead of time, according to Ready.gov, a site run by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. People should know where to go in an emergency and how to get there. They should also consider the elderly, disabled neighbors and loved ones who may need assistance.