Number of young kids in big cities craters by 15% in the last decade — and these cities saw the biggest drop

Number of young kids in big cities craters by 15% in the last decade — and these cities saw the biggest drop

No kids on the block.

The number of young children living in America’s big cities has plummeted 15% in the past 10 years, as would-be parents move away or just give up on having kids, thanks to high costs of living and childcare, according to a stunning new analysis.

San Jose and Los Angeles saw the biggest decline in the population of kids — down by 20% and 16% between 2015 and 2024. New York City reported a decline of 8% in under-18s.

While the nation’s record-low fertility rate has made headlines, in major urban areas, the disappearance of children is even greater.

The number of young children living in major cities has dropped 15% in 10 years. Monkey Business – stock.adobe.com

The number of children under age 5 living in big cities fell 15% between 2015 and 2024, compared with a 7% drop nationwide, new analysis by the Wall Street Journal found.

The WSJ analyzed the demographic data of America’s 38 cities with at least residents.

The number of under-18s in big cities also fell 6% in the same time period, compared to 1% nationwide.

Even cities that grew overall in the past decade lost children, with roughly two-thirds of the 38 large US cities recording a decrease in the population of children.

While many young people are opting not to have children, a large number of parents are also choosing to leave the city.

No children, no future

Big cities with the largest drop in population under 18, 2015 to 2024

  1. San Jose, California – 20% decline
  2. Los Angeles – 16%
  3. Albuquerque, New Mexico – 15%
  4. Portland, Oregon – 14%
  5. San Diego – 14%

… and the cities that added the most kids, 2015 to 2024

  1. Fort Worth, Texas – 11% increase
  2. Jacksonville, Florida – 11%
  3. Washington, DC – 10%
  4. Seattle – 10%
  5. Columbus, Ohio – 9%
Roughly two-thirds of America’s major cities saw drops in their child populations. Jason – stock.adobe.com

Parents who moved away cited fears about costs, safety, and quality of life, while childless respondents also expressed worries about the financial implications and lifestyle trade-offs of having a family, according to the WSJ.

San Jose, California saw the greatest drop in young children, with the number of kids under age 5 dropping more than a third (34%) in the past decade.

San Jose, California, was the most affected, with a 20% decline in young children over 10 years. f11photo – stock.adobe.com

Median household incomes in the Silicon Valley hub are nearly twice the US average, pricing out many middle-class families.

“I was just over it,” firefighter Ernie Solis told the newspaper, explaining his decision to leave San Jose with his teacher wife and two children.

With daycare costing about $25,000 for each of his young sons, the couple moved to just outside Boise, Idaho, in 2021.

Ernie now flies into San Jose for work every Monday, staying in free dorms for firefighters during the week and returning to Idaho on Friday.

And he insisted he’s not alone, having met other dads working blue-collar jobs such as electricians, HVAC technicians, and auto body shop owners, making the same crazy commute.

Los Angeles also saw a stark drop of 16% in its under-18 population, the second-biggest fall in any major US city.

But even relatively affordable cities are seeing a youth drain, with Albuquerque, New Mexico, losing 15% of its child population, and Milwaukee losing 11% in the past decade.

New York, with an 8% drop, was toward the lower end of the rankings, although the Big Apple’s cratering youth population arguably started before many other cities.

Since 2000, the city has lost a net 80,000 households between 30 and 54 that have a married couple or at least one child, as middle-class families are forced out of the city, according to Melissa Pumphrey, chief economist of New York’s Economic Development Corporation.

In that same period, the city gained a net 670,000 households of single people or families without kids under 18.

Parents need to earn $334,000 to comfortably afford child care for a 2-year-old in New York, according to analysis from the city’s comptroller.

At the same time, median rent for apartments with three or more bedrooms is $5,495 citywide, according to StreetEasy.

America’s record-low birthrate is undoubtedly a major factor, having fallen 9% in the past decade, especially among women in their 20s and Hispanic women, the study found.

However, other national trends, such as COVID and soaring prices in cities in the 2010s, also played a role.

Among the major cities that saw a rise in under-18s, most were in the Sunbelt, where it remains relatively affordable for middle-class families.

For example, Fort Worth, Texas, and Jacksonville, Florida, both saw an 11% increase in under-18s.

Charlotte, North Carolina, Kansas City, Missouri, Oklahoma City, Atlanta, Nashville, Mesa, Arizona, and Las Vegas also all saw increases in children.

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