The 2025 season was one of redemption for Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold. Going into the start of last year, skepticism remained about his ability to play at a high level at the quarterback position.

After failing with the Jets and Panthers, then becoming a backup with the 49ers, he finally had a breakout season at age 27 in his lone stint with the Vikings in 2024. But that season ended with him looking overmatched in the playoffs and searching for yet another new team.

With the Seahawks, Darnold finally fulfilled the promise that made him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Seattle’s defense was amazing, but Darnold wasn’t just along for the ride en route to a Super Bowl win; he was driving the bus.

Despite his successful career turnaround over the past two seasons, sportsbooks still don’t view Darnold as one of the league’s top passers.

Darnold is 28/1 to lead the NFL in passing yards this season. According to the books, 14 players have better odds to lead the league in passing yards.

The three favorites at the top of the odds board, each listed at +750 odds, all make sense.

Jared Goff has finished second in passing yards for three straight seasons, Joe Burrow led the NFL with nearly 5,000 passing yards in 2024, and Dak Prescott has topped 4,000 yards in his past four healthy seasons.

But the list of players ahead of Darnold also includes Patrick Mahomes, who tore his ACL in December, Bo Nix, who broke his ankle in January, and sophomore quarterback Tyler Shough, who averaged 216.7 passing yards per game to Darnold’s 238.1 last season.

So two players who could be limited after suffering devastating injuries late last season and a 26-year-old second-year quarterback, who has upside but is largely unproven, have better odds than Darnold. That seems way off based on the numbers.

With the Vikings in 2024, Darnold finished fifth with over 4,300 passing yards on the eighth-most attempts. Darnold again threw for over 4,000 yards last season and finished fifth in that category despite ranking 15th in passing attempts.

Betting on the NFL?

Two different coaches and teams but similar results for Darnold, which gives me confidence that another new offensive coordinator won’t be too much of an adjustment for him.

It also helps that the Seahawks have amazing receiving weapons for Darnold to catch his passes. Jaxon Smith-Njigba led the league with over 1,700 receiving yards last season, the eighth-most for a single season in NFL history.

Cooper Kupp is back as their No. 2 receiver and proved in the postseason that he can still be an impact player as he gets deeper into his 30s.

They also returned Rashid Shaheed after landing him via trade from the Saints midseason. Shaheed could be the X-factor for their offense because of his speed and Darnold’s ability to throw accurate deep balls.

Coming off a Super Bowl win, I expect Darnold to have supreme confidence and pick up where he left off last season. At 28/1 odds, I’ll jump on him to be the top passer in the league as a value play before the season.

The pick: Sam Darnold NFL passing yards leader (28/1 DraftKings)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.