Where there’s smoke, they say, there’s usually fire.

And on Saturday, as signs first publicly emerged that the Dodgers were making a move in the Tarik Skubal sweepstakes, the team’s behind-the-scenes talks with the Tigers were indeed reaching a fever pitch.

A day earlier, the organizations had begun discussing a trade for Skubal — the American League’s reigning two-time Cy Young Award winner and this year’s top deadline target — in earnest for the first time.

By Saturday evening, the Dodgers’ front office had grown so confident in its chances of landing the left-handed ace that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman dropped a hint to manager Dave Roberts.

“Right before the first pitch, I heard that it was pretty much done,” Roberts recounted on Sunday, as the rest of the baseball world was still digesting the Dodgers’ latest blockbuster acquisition. “There were obviously things that had to go on with medicals, so it wasn’t actually even finalized. I just heard that it was pretty much close.”

Over the next three hours, the Dodgers successfully pushed the deal across the finish line, ironing out a package that included three minor-league prospects — outfielder Zyhir Hope, and pitchers River Ryan and Brady Smith — in exchange for the majors’ most dominant pitcher over the last three seasons. 

“Being on our side, you didn’t really know how long the process was gonna go, whether it was gonna go into Sunday, into Monday,” Friedman said. “But, obviously, we were of the mind to be aggressive and try to get a deal done.”

A day later, the reverberations of the trade were still rattling throughout the baseball industry, most of which had never bought the Dodgers’ repeated Skubal-related bluffs in recent weeks.

Though the team had insisted publicly and privately that it didn’t need Skubal, and that it wouldn’t make an all-in push to get the pending free agent at inflated deadline prices, rival teams always saw the Dodgers as his most likely landing spot. 

The expectation was that Friedman & Co. would make a strong push in pursuit of a third straight World Series championship.

Friedman and Roberts effectively confirmed that on Sunday, saying the club had decided early on to target the 29-year-old superstar, whom they felt was the one true “needle-mover” on this year’s deadline market.

“Skubal or nothing” was the way Roberts put it.

“Our mindset,” Friedman added, “was we’re going to be really aggressive for one player.”

That didn’t mean the Dodgers were certain they would get Skubal.

As recently as the start of this week, it was unclear if the Tigers would even move their star pitcher as they began clawing their way back in the playoff picture. On Thursday, one team source estimated only a 25% likelihood of a deal. 

But after Detroit blew a 7-0 lead in what became Skubal’s Tigers finale on Wednesday, a trade finally started to feel like an inevitability.

And over the next 72 hours, the Dodgers didn’t just hang around “the backboard,” as Friedman has quipped about so many of their other star additions over the last half-decade.

This time, armed with a war chest of prospects and few other roster holes to fill, they wanted to try to box everybody else out.

“With where our core is this moment in time,” Friedman said, “erring on the side of aggressive made the most sense right now.”

The first signs of apparent movement came just as the Dodgers began their Saturday night game against the Red Sox, when their Double-A affiliate in Tulsa scratched the highly touted Hope (who is the team’s No. 4 prospect and widely ranked as a top-50 talent around the sport) as well as fellow outfielder prospect Kendall George from their lineup.

Sources initially described that decision as precautionary — the Dodgers playing it safe with two young talents as trade deadline conversations intensified.

But internally, a Hope-centric package had already taken shape.

(An aside: George was also believed to be the subject of trade discussions the Dodgers were having with clubs, but a source noted he was also dealing with a knee issue, having only come back from a freak injury earlier this season).

By the third inning at Dodger Stadium, buzz about the deal picked up further steam.

At that point, the Dodgers were seeking medical records and doing “due diligence,” according to two sources. The Post’s Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman also reported that the team’s package was believed to be topping those of fellow Skubal contenders, including the Brewers and Yankees. 

“Stay tuned,” one person with knowledge of the team’s plans said.

The Dodgers had maintained interest in other players throughout the process, according to sources.

One contingency was Mets starter (and former Yankees closer) Clay Holmes, who could have been a swingman for a Dodgers team that could use reinforcements in the bullpen. The team was reviewing reports for other pitching targets, too.

Still, Skubal remained their primary focus, with Friedman indicating the Dodgers never seriously engaged with any other teams about potential alternatives. And at some point during Saturday’s game, a final deal was struck including two young pitching pieces from the Dodgers’ well-regarded farm system.

That none of the Dodgers’ active big-league arms were included came as a surprise.

There had long been an assumption that the Tigers would want someone from their current rotation, with Emmet Sheehan coming to be seen as the likeliest candidate.

That’s why, when Sheehan was conspicuously absent from the Dodgers’ dugout during the middle innings of their eventual Saturday night loss, industry speculation piqued. It’s not unusual for starters to return to the clubhouse on days they aren’t pitching. But on this occasion, it fueled growing rumors he was headed out the door.

Instead, as Sheehan said from his locker after the game, no one had informed him of any pending trade situation.

Rather, the Tigers ultimately agreed to Ryan (the uber-talented but often-injured 27-year-old right-hander who has been sidelined by a hamstring problem in Triple-A) and Smith (a raw-but-promising 21-year-old flamethrower who has yet to climb above Single-A). 

That rounded out what rival evaluators described as a modest — albeit, for what is still a rental player, understandable — package that the Tigers hope includes plenty of long-term upside.

“We gave up a lot of talent,” Friedman insisted. “Those guys are really good.”

But for what the Dodgers hope is the final piece of their three-peat puzzle, they were more than happy to oblige for another marquee transaction.

“Whenever there’s a star-level player that is available that can really shift championship odds,” Friedman said, “those are the moments that we’ll be more aggressive.”