In a competitive Maine Senate race, women voters could be the deciders
Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, walks in the annual Moxie Day Parade on July 11, 2026 in Lisbon, Maine. In her 2020 Senate campaign, Collins won women voters by three points, according to exit polling.
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Scott Eisen/Getty Images
BANGOR, Maine — On an 89-acre farm in Belmont, Maine, Stacy Leafsong is finishing up a series of intricate flower arrangements for an upcoming wedding. With pops of blue and white, the flowers mirror the colors of the coast, just a short drive to the east.
“I do flowers seven days a week, literally live and breathe flowers all the time,” she said with a laugh.
Leafsong is also a progressive organizer, and at the farm last summer, she hosted Graham Platner’s first fundraiser for his U.S. Senate campaign. She watched his rise and eventual fall, ending last month when he suspended his campaign over an allegation of rape, which he denies.
Leafsong, a domestic violence survivor, denounced him before then, after growing concerned by previous reporting about Platner’s behavior towards women. Now, she’s supporting Troy Jackson, the progressive former state senator who Democrats nominated to replace Platner.
Stacy Leafsong was an early Graham Platner supporter. She watched his rise and eventual fall, and is now supporting Troy Jackson.
Stacy Leafsong
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Stacy Leafsong
The race for Senate in Maine was always expected to be one of the most competitive matchups of the midterms. But the Platner scandal adds pressure to Jackson’s already daunting task of chipping away at a key source of support for Republican incumbent Susan Collins: Maine women.
“He really needs to speak to the women in Maine, and really convince them that he’s going to advocate well for them,” Leafsong said. “Women’s issues are much more than childcare and abortion.”
The power of women voters is clear when looking at Collins’ winning coalition in 2020. Women in the state made up nearly 60% of total turnout, according to exit polling, voting for Joe Biden by 23 percentage points. However the same group flipped for Collins, by just three points.
“Women voters in Maine are the majority of voters, and so you have to take them seriously,” said Democrat Emily Cain, a former state senator and the previous executive director of Emily’s List, an organization that backs women candidates who support abortion rights.
“Independents are almost a third of voters in Maine. But the majority of voters are women who are older,” she added. “So the people who decide statewide races typically are independents who are also a majority women.”
Democratic officials see flipping Maine this year as a crucial pickup opportunity if the party wants to regain a majority in the Senate, and Collins is the only sitting Republican Senator up for reelection who represents a state President Trump lost in 2024.
But Collins is also no stranger to a tough race, having won in multiple cycles where Democratic presidential candidates have also carried the state. Plus, Republicans have already spent millions on a barrage of ads trying to link Platner to Jackson, according to data from AdImpact, seizing on reports that he has a short temper.
Unlike Platner, Jackson has never been accused of sexual violence towards women. But he has admitted to getting into shouting matches with colleagues during his time as a state lawmaker, something he’s apologized for.
Collins, Jackson and abortion rights
However, 2026 does pose a new challenge for Collins, given it’s the first time she’s back on the ballot since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
Collins has long voiced support for abortion protections, but in 2018, her vote was crucial in confirming Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, expanding a conservative majority that went on to ultimately eliminate the constitutional right to abortion in 2022.
Democrats want to make Collins’ vote for Kavanaugh key point of contention in this race. But it’s also a topic where Jackson’s views have evolved. He initially entered politics as an abortion rights opponent, but shifted left over time and voted to expand access in recent years, post-Roe.
“I’m rock solid on this now, and Susan has been the opposite,” Jackson said in an interview with Maine Public Radio last month. “She’s made sure that everyday people across this country have a real challenge to get abortion access.”
Troy Jackson greets people after being selected as the new Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 25, 2026, in Bangor.
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Speaking to reporters in June, Collins defended her support for Kavanaugh, saying she does not regret her vote. Her campaign has also pushed back on claims that Jackson is the better advocate on the issue.
“This was a conversion motivated by political convenience and marked a complete reversal of his long-held positions,” Collins’ campaign communications director Blake Kernen said in a statement.
“In contrast, Senator Collins is a champion for women, and her pro-choice views have never changed.”
The message coming from voters
But this political sore spot may end up coming in second for many voters, who remain primarily motivated to vote because of economic worries.
Diana Kushnar is a Republican candidate running for the Maine House of Representatives. When she’s out on the campaign trail, she says, affordability concerns are what’s top of mind for voters.
“They’re worried about whether they can afford a home – because [of] the rising utility bills – the costs of raising your family and then just the access to health care … and whether their children will have even a reason to stay in Maine,” she said.
Kushnar is supporting Collins this fall, but the concerns she raised are shared with many voters on the other side of the political aisle. Though often it’s paired with a desire for a change in leadership.
Kelli Brennan volunteered for Troy Jackson’s unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign. She sees his Senate bid as “a second chance to get Troy in a position of leadership.”
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Elena Moore/NPR
“I think Susan Collins’ time is up,” said Jackson supporter Kelli Brennan, a nurse and co-president of the Maine State Nurses Association. “I think a lot of women have stuck up for her, and I think a lot of women feel burned by her.”
“What we need right now is somebody who understands the working class,” she said, adding that from nurses and teachers to single moms, the working class includes women.
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