Risky 49ers prediction leaves new WR off roster — but there’s a Deebo Samuel wild card

Christian Kirk was supposed to give the San Francisco 49ers another experienced option in a receiving corps already carrying plenty of uncertainty.

Instead, he may not even make the team.

David Lombardi of the San Francisco Standard projected Kirk outside the 53-man roster, with Mike Evans, De’Zhaun Stribling, Deebo Samuel, Demarcus Robinson, Jordan Watkins and Jacob Cowing making the cut.

Christian Kirk of the Houston Texans warms up prior to a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, Sept. 21, 2025, at EverBank Field in Jacksonville, Florida. Getty Images

Matt Maiocco of NBC Sports Bay Area also left Kirk off his latest projection, favoring impressive undrafted rookie Will Pauling instead.

Kirk’s problem is simple: He has barely been available.

The 29-year-old has not practiced since straining his calf on the first day of training camp, depriving him of the opportunity to establish himself while younger receivers have taken advantage. Stribling, the No. 33 overall pick, has been one of San Francisco’s biggest camp standouts, and carried that momentum into the preseason opener with seven catches for 62 yards in one half.

Pauling has also pushed himself into the conversation, while Watkins has continued to flash the speed and playmaking ability that made him a fourth-round pick last year.

Still, cutting Kirk would come with considerable risk.

The 49ers have already lost Ricky Pearsall for the season due to knee surgery, while Brandon Aiyuk technically remains under team control but outside the immediate roster picture.

San Francisco 49ers’ Christian Kirk during NFL football practice on Thursday, May 28, 2026, in Santa Clara, Calif. AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

That leaves a group heavily dependent on veterans with their own durability questions.

Evans remains the biggest name, but the 33-year-old is coming off an injury-marred 2025 season after opening his career with 11 consecutive 1,000-yard campaigns. He has already dealt with a quad strain this summer.

Samuel’s return gives Kyle Shanahan one of the league’s most versatile offensive weapons, but his physical style and extensive usage as both a receiver and runner have also contributed to a lengthy injury history.

Lombardi noted that Samuel has worked with both the receivers and running backs during camp.

That versatility could become Kirk’s best path onto the roster. The 49ers could theoretically feel comfortable cutting a running back, given Samuel’s ability to play the position, creating room to keep a seventh receiver.

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. runs during the NFL football team’s training camp on Monday, August 3, 2026, in Santa Clara, Calif. AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

Kirk’s raw production dipped in 2025 with the Texans, but his underlying profile still reads like the kind of efficiency bet Kyle Shanahan has repeatedly made at receiver.

From 2022-25 with the Jaguars and Texans, Kirk averaged 1.67 yards per route run, caught 61.8% of his targets and produced 4.3 yards after the catch per reception. More than 20% of his catches went for 20-plus yards, giving San Francisco a proven slot receiver who can separate, stay on schedule and turn underneath throws into chunk plays — essentially the traits Shanahan’s offense is built to maximize.

San Francisco signed Kirk to a one-year, $3 million contract with incentives that can push the deal to $6 million, hardly an overwhelming financial commitment.

The question is whether the 49ers can justify using a roster spot on a veteran they have barely seen this summer.

Keeping Kirk could mean sacrificing a younger player who earned his place during camp.

Letting him go could leave San Francisco one Evans or Samuel injury away from asking Stribling, Watkins and other inexperienced receivers to carry far more responsibility than originally planned.

Given what has already happened to Pearsall, that is a gamble the 49ers may want to think twice about taking.

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