The Iran war and tariffs are costing farmers. Will Republicans pay in November?
Ian Stamy, 38, a sixth-generation cash-crop soybean and grain farmer, walks into his field in Mechanicsburg, Pa., on Aug. 12. Stamy pivoted to soybeans and grain because he says dairy farming was no longer turning a profit.
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
hide caption
toggle caption
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
MECHANICSBURG, Pa. — Last year, Ian Stamy took the state prize for his bumper soybean yield, coaxing an average of just over 100 bushels per acre from his operation in central Pennsylvania. It’s a title he’s eager to defend this year — and so far, things look promising.
Wading into a sea of soybeans to grab a stalk by its roots, he says the weather has improved, but last month’s record heat wave has him a bit concerned.
“We’ve been doing everything we can to push a little harder and try a little harder to maintain high yields and see what we can get,” he says.
A cow painted on the side of one of his barns is a throwback to his family’s six generations of dairy farming, but in 2018, he reversed course. The economics of dairy just didn’t work any longer, he says. Now he’s all in on soybeans and corn and is excited about this fall’s harvest. He acknowledges, though, that it’s hard to predict yields until the combines start rolling.
The side of a barn at Stamy Farms in Mechanicsburg, Pa., on Aug. 12.
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
hide caption
toggle caption
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
Corn stored in a grain silo is seen at Stamy Farms.
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
hide caption
toggle caption
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
Dry conditions aren’t his only challenge this year. Stamy and other farmers NPR spoke to for this story say the cost of keeping a farm running — including fertilizer and diesel fuel for farm equipment — has risen sharply. Those higher costs come on top of President Trump’s trade disputes, which have reduced agricultural exports to Canada and China. China, the world’s biggest importer of soybeans, responded by turning to other suppliers, such as Brazil. In 2017, the South American country overtook the U.S. as the world’s largest soybean producer, and now it supplies 65% of Beijing’s needs.
Stamy, 38, who grows about 1,200 acres of soybeans, says price volatility has been “ridiculous” in the last two years. “You think you’re heading in the right direction. … You’re trying to look ahead at weather events and stuff like that. And then something else happens, bombing or war, and then it changes the whole game.”
Farmers are more “persuadable” this election
He doesn’t explicitly hold Trump responsible for these challenges, but recent polling suggests that discontent among farmers — long a stalwart of the Make America Great Again coalition — is increasing.
In 2024, more than three-quarters of the country’s farming-dependent counties helped return Trump to the White House. But in the following year, farm bankruptcies spiked across much of the country, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.
In an April 2026 survey of 974 farmers in 44 states commissioned by Amato Advisors and conducted by Farm Journal, 78% said machinery and other key costs, including fertilizer, fuel, seed and chemicals, were among their top three concerns, and 94% said the war with Iran was increasing those costs. A total of 55% said federal policies over the previous year had hurt their operations, compared with just 19% who said they had helped.
Perhaps more alarmingly for Republicans, in the same poll, 39% said they were “persuadable” in the 2026 elections — meaning they were considering voting for a different party, an independent or a third-party candidate, were considering not voting or were unsure how they would vote.
Ian Stamy stands at a grain silo on his farm on Aug. 12.
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
hide caption
toggle caption
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
That reflects a more general sentiment among rural voters, who have become increasingly disillusioned with the direction of the country, according to a poll from March by the Center for Rural Strategies.
“Looking at the vote of farmers is a good way to view the concerns that extend beyond the farming community about the costs of living and about how some of the policies of the Trump administration … have really harmed everyday working people’s economics,” says Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. As a solid MAGA constituency, they’re unlikely to do an about-face, but on Election Day, they could just stay on the farm.
“I think it’s more likely that they just don’t vote,” Yost says.
Clinton Griffiths, the executive director of Farm Journal, says he thinks farmers are just tired of feeling like political pawns. Before every election, “all of a sudden, politicians are making their way out to the rural countryside and talk to folks,” he says. “Then once the election is over, [they] disappear.” That goes for both parties, he says.
Farmers, while vital to their communities, represent a shrinking subset of the rural population. The Farm Bureau says farmers make up less than 2% of the U.S. population, just one-third the number who farmed in 1960.
In some tight races, however, the farm vote could still make a difference. Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, which includes the Harrisburg area and Mechanicsburg, saw incumbent Republican Rep. Scott Perry defeat Democratic challenger and former news anchor Janelle Stelson in 2024 by the narrowest of margins — just 1.3 percentage points. He’s facing Stelson again this fall. NPR reached out to both Perry and Stelson for comment but received no reply.
Iran war driving up costs
In York, about a 30-minute drive from the Stamy farm, Brian Smyser runs a diversified operation that includes agritourism activities and a roadside stand featuring sweet corn, tomatoes, zucchini and watermelon.
His family has been working the land under his feet since the opening shots of the Civil War. He points out his barn, noting that it sits on the same spot where the first one was struck by lightning and burned to the ground in 1933.
Brian Smyser, 50, feeds a treat to a bull inside one of his barns at his farm in York, Pa., on Aug. 12. Smyser, a seventh-generation cash-crop farmer, focuses on beef cattle, produce and agritourism.
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
hide caption
toggle caption
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
Playground slides for agritourism are set up on Smyser’s Farm.
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
hide caption
toggle caption
Michelle Gustafson for NPR
Smyser, 50, owns 250 acres but leases about 750 more. He sells produce and raises livestock, and his farm hosts events that give the public a glimpse of farm life. He says the multiple income streams help insulate him from some of the ups and downs of the industry — but because it has been so dry in recent years, he has had to make crop insurance claims in five of the last six years.
“I don’t really care who is elected, whether it’s a Republican or a Democrat,” he says emphatically. But he is feeling the same pinch as Stamy from skyrocketing prices for fuel and fertilizer and sees an obvious solution: “The biggest thing is try to get this war over.”
Smyser isn’t happy with the situation, but he’s reluctant to lay the blame on the president or his party. “I’m not saying Trump’s perfect. I mean, I’ll tell you that right up-front,” he says. “I mean, he’s cost us a lot of money. Trump’s cost us a lot of money, but he’s done a lot of good things for us too.”
Just trying to break even
Compared with Stamy and Smyser, the Verbos Family Farm in Harrisburg is more of a boutique operation, with just 13 acres. Amanda Verbos runs a roadside stand similar to Smyser’s, but it’s largely stocked with produce from neighboring farms. She raises sheep and lambs too and knows them all by name.
Verbos, 41, has been running her farm for only about a dozen years. The idea grew out of her nostalgia for childhood summers spent on her great-grandparents’ farm.
Politically, she describes herself as an independent and says rising costs are making it harder to hold on to her dream. On a farm, she says, everything is a gamble.
But she has yet to break even. She works as a nurse to make ends meet. There’s a lot of heart in farming, she says, “but the economics don’t make sense.”
“We bought this property, and we’ve worked, I mean, tirelessly to make some kind of income on it,” she says. “Thank goodness I have a regular job, that I have income, that I have guaranteed money coming in. Otherwise I wouldn’t be able to feed my family.”
Verbos acknowledges she’s losing $8,000 to $10,000 each year. Asked whether that’s sustainable in the long run, she says no. This year, however, she has scored a contract to supply the local Community Fridges, which help feed people in need. Her son is also learning to spin wool, and the hope is that they can produce and sell a product but cut out most of the middleman costs.
Her aim this year, though, isn’t nearly as ambitious as turning a profit, she says. “Our goal is just to run a zero balance.”
- Admin
- Could Lakers capitalize on latest Nikola Jokic-Nuggets drama? August 21, 2026
- IndyCar driver Graham Rahal reflects on opportunity to compete at Freedom 250 Grand Prix: 'Iconic moment' August 21, 2026
- Summer heat can make eczema flare up — here’s why and how to prevent it August 21, 2026
- First lady Melania Trump, Fox Corporation announce landmark strategic alliance to grow Fostering the Future August 21, 2026
- LA may have witnessed the worst streamed political debate in history August 21, 2026