Operation Economic Outcast is a recipe for success against Iran
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday launched what he called Operation Economic Outcast — a global campaign to shut down every last source of financial oxygen feeding a fractured rump regime in Tehran that’s already circling the economic drain.
Combined with the US military’s growing success in covertly moving oil out of the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump will edge one step closer to checkmate against Iran’s Revolutionary Guard when he gives the green light to drop the hammer on nations that ignore America’s final warning.
The United States can’t force other countries to join a bombing run. It can’t compel foreign navies to patrol the Persian Gulf. But it can change economic behavior through the threat and imposition of US secondary sanctions — on private banks, brokers and exchanges, airport authorities and aviation service providers, shippers and insurers, and even state-owned enterprises and government instrumentalities.
The threat of secondary sanctions can shut down trade across land borders and keep airplanes grounded. It can also disrupt the movement of cash, cryptocurrency, goods and services.
Pulling the trigger on these sanctions can be disruptive. It can break a diplomatic relationship, crash a foreign country’s economy or cause temporary knock-on effects in the global economy.
We saw examples during the first Trump administration, from tanking the Turkish lira to free an American Christian pastor to shaking up global shipping to force China’s COSCO to stop carrying Iranian cargo.
It takes courage for a president to authorize this kind of total financial warfare. But that’s exactly what appears to be happening with a Treasury Secretary empowered to do whatever it takes to bring down Iran’s financial house of cards.
That’s very bad news for the IRGC. Every escape hatch from the naval blockade is about to close. From its immediate neighbors to its sanctions evasion hubs across the Gulf, Europe and China, to its one-off schemes in Africa and the Western Hemisphere, the Treasury Department has mapped out every source of remaining oxygen breathing financial life into the regime in Tehran.
American diplomats and Treasury attaches abroad are meeting with their counterparts this week to tell them what steps are necessary — and put them on the clock to either asphyxiate the IRGC or face asphyxiation from U.S. sanctions.
Secretary Bessent gave us some hints of where Treasury will focus its enforcement efforts: Iranian bank branches still operating abroad, digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping.
But the broader the financial message was clear: If it looks like Iran, if it smells like Iran, or if it talks like Iran, shut it down now, or Treasury will shut you down by the end of the week.
Last week, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said it would be better for the IRGC to “bring the war to an end now.” His comments followed Iran’s central bank governor warning about severe economic impacts.
The National Iranian Oil Company’s bank accounts were recently frozen due to unpaid debts. Inflation tops 100% and news of Operation Economic Outcast further collapsed Iran’s currency, which now trades at 2 million Rial to the dollar.
Gasoline shortages are increasing, the IRGC’s loyal soldiers aren’t getting paid and their imaginary supreme leader is nowhere to be found. Public anger may soon boil over to the level witnessed in January.
Hopefully President Trump is busy planning for how to covertly help the Iranian people as their next window of opportunity to seize control rapidly approaches.
Meanwhile, just as the pressure builds on Tehran, the IRGC’s counterpressure on the United States is slowly dissipating.
The US military continues to move more and more oil out of the Strait of Hormuz every week. Senior officials say 16 million barrels of oil came out on Friday night, while Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported 15 million barrels came out in a single night last week.
The three steps needed to crush the IRGC remain the same today as they were nearly four months ago: enforce the blockade alongside total economic warfare; use the U.S. military to get more oil out of Hormuz; and employ American energy dominance to eliminate the IRGC’s leverage forever. President Trump is following this formula to great effect.
Richard Goldberg, a senior advisor at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, was senior counselor for the National Energy Dominance Council and director for countering Iranian WMD for the National Security Council.