Arsenal’s Premier League title defense got off to a flawless start in Matchweek 1. The Gunners ran rampant over Coventry City, earning every bit of their 3-0 victory over the newly promoted side.

Things should get much tougher with a trip to Villa Park on Monday, but Unai Emery’s Villans looked in rough shape in a 4-0 defeat to Brighton last weekend.

Is this match as straightforward as it looks on paper? Or is this a classic buy-low spot on a team that finished fourth last season?

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal odds, pick

The bookies aren’t giving the home side much of a chance in this tilt. Aston Villa is a +550 underdog on the three-way moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook, while Arsenal is ticking close to -200. That’s a wide gap considering how strong Villa were last season.

Not only did the Villans win the Europa League, but they finished fourth in the Premier League for the second time in the past three seasons. Villa has finished in the top-seven in each of the past four campaigns.

The issue is that things are unsettled at Villa Park right now. Plenty of key contributors (Ollie Watkins, Youri Tielemans, Lucas Digne, and Ezri Konsa) have moved on, leaving Emery with a real job on his hands.

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That said, this Villa side deserves more respect than they’re getting from the betting market on Monday. There’s still plenty of talent down the spine of this starting XI, and Nicolas Jackson’s arrival should help ease the scoring burden after Watkins’ dramatic departure.

Arsenal are a steady ship, and Mikel Arteta added to the squad shrewdly this summer (including nabbing Konsa), but they’re getting overvalued here on account of what we saw from both of these sides in Matchweek 1.

Write off Emery and Villa at your own risk. Especially at home.

The Play: Aston Villa moneyline (+550, FanDuel Sportsbook)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.