Targeting stolen bases can provide needed fantasy baseball boost for playoff push
Fantasy baseball managers are feeling the squeeze in the final month of the MLB regular season. Whether you are clawing for a fraction of a point in a tight rotisserie category or fighting through the brackets of a head-to-head matchup, every single statistic matters.
Fortunately, one of the easiest categories to manipulate late in the season is stolen bases. Though power and pitching ratios are difficult to alter drastically in a matter of weeks, a few savvy waiver wire additions can completely flip the speed category in your favor.
To strike gold in the final month, you must look beyond individual player speed and start mining for team-wide philosophies and exploitable defensive matchups.
When looking for teams that actively push the envelope on the basepaths, three clubs stand out above the rest this season: the Marlins, Nationals and Brewers.
These three franchises lead the majors in total stolen base attempts, making their rosters prime territory for late-season streaming. If an aggressive runner on any of these clubs is sitting on your waiver wire, add them immediately.
Among these speed-heavy teams, the Marlins present the absolute-best matchup for the final stretch. Not only does Miami lead the entire league in stolen base attempts, but they are also scheduled to face Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez, who has struggled immensely to control the running game this year, posting a meager 20 percent caught-stealing rate.
When you consider that the current league average sits at 29 percent, it becomes clear that the Marlins will have a green light every time they reach first base.
To maximize your strategy, you also need to target the defensive liabilities of opposing teams. This season, the Red Sox, Rockies and Cardinals have posted the worst caught-stealing rates in baseball.
Baserunners are finding historical success against these pitching staffs and catchers, creating a perfect storm for fantasy managers willing to stream players purely based on the schedule.
For immediate dividends, you should heavily invest in any available Yankees who are set to match up against the Rockies. Colorado owns the second-lowest caught-stealing rate in the league, meaning even average runners on the Yankees’ roster stand a high chance of swiping a bag.
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Furthermore, keep a close eye on the Giants. San Francisco speedsters, including sparkplugs like Jonah Cox, are entering a gold-mine stretch against the Cardinals, who sport the third-worst caught-stealing rate in the league — making Cox and his teammates elite short-term options for anyone desperate for a statistical surge.
In the final weeks of the fantasy baseball season, titles are won on the margins. Stop waiting for your stagnant superstars to suddenly start running. By targeting high-attempt teams such as the Marlins, Nationals and Brewers, and aggressively streaming players against the porous defenses of the Rockies and Cardinals, you can easily manufacture the stolen bases needed to secure a championship.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy, catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Ch. 87) weekdays from 6-8 p.m. and dominate your leagues with the latest baseball news and advice from Fantasy Alarm.