Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina prediction: US Open Final best bets, pick, odds
The world’s top two players will meet in the Women’s U.S. Open Final on Saturday afternoon.
No. 1 seed Aryna Sabalenka is one win shy of becoming the third woman to win three consecutive U.S. Opens (Serena Williams and Chris Evert).
Still, she’ll have her hands full against World No. 2 Elena Rybakina, who is looking for the third Grand Slam title of her career.
Rybakina had never made it beyond Round 4 at the U.S. Open previously.
Sabalenka is a slight -145 favorite to complete the three-peat.
As you’d expect in a battle between the top two players in the world, the tale of the tape for this showdown is razor-thin. The head-to-head bears that out, as these two generational stars have split their last 12 meetings (Sabalenka is 10-7 against Rybakina overall).
As is the case in any match featuring Rybakina, this heavyweight battle with Sabalenka will come down to her serving. The Kazakh is the best server in the WTA by a country mile and can be untouchable if she’s landing her first serve.
And while Sabalenka has better numbers when she’s returning, the edge isn’t that profound.
The Belarusian has won 44.6 percent of her return points this season, but Rybakina is right behind her at 42.3 percent.
Another potential deciding factor in this match is Sabalenka’s habit of going off the rails.
The 28-year-old has improved plenty in this department over recent seasons, but there are still times when she gets frustrated and implodes. If Rybakina is landing her first serve and not allowing Sabalenka to make inroads, the potential for a blowup grows considerably.
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This match is as close as you can get, but Rybakina has the one real difference-maker with her serve.
That, along with Sabalenka’s penchant for losing her cool, makes the underdog worth a play Saturday.
The Play: Elena Rybakina moneyline (+120, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.