Perhaps the concern about all the change at Memphis this offseason was overblown.

Charles Huff has the Tigers firing off the block, upsetting UNLV on the road in Week 0 and then swatting aside Arkansas State, 42-24, last weekend.

Despite the strong start, Memphis is an 8.5-point underdog at Boise State on Saturday evening.

Memphis vs. Boise State odds, prediction

If Memphis has been the most impressive Group of 6 program through the first fortnight of the season, Boise State has a legitimate claim to be right behind them.

The Broncos were massive underdogs on the road against Oregon in Week 1, but took the Ducks to the brink in a 34-27 defeat.

It goes down in the ledger as a loss, but in terms of Boise State’s season-long prospects, it was a massive victory.

The performance is also reflected in the betting odds, as this is a pretty hefty price for the Broncos to be laying against a team that has looked like serious business through two contests.

And while it’s not fair to take anything away from the Broncos after a resilient effort in Eugene, they did benefit from a ton of Oregon penalties and were outgained by 223 yards. Oregon was also 0-for-3 on fourth down.

It’s unfair to judge the Boise State offense in a game on the road at Autzen Stadium, but the questions from last year still linger.

Quarterback Maddux Madsen was all over the map in 2025, and he wasn’t especially sharp against the Ducks.

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He didn’t get the Broncos in trouble, which is his job as a massive underdog, but the performance doesn’t give me much confidence that he can be the difference-maker you need him to be when you’re an 8.5-point favorite against a very solid opponent.

Memphis’ ground game has been firing on all cylinders through two weeks, and it should make the Tigers a really tough out Saturday.

The Play: Memphis +8.5 (-110, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.