Get used to this sentence: Notre Dame is a massive favorite Saturday.

After pasting Wisconsin and Rice in the first two weeks of the season, the Fighting Irish welcome Michigan State to South Bend for a contest under the lights.

The Spartans (2-0) are a 29.5-point underdog for their 160-mile trek to Notre Dame Stadium.

Notre Dame vs. Michigan State prediction

There is a temptation to just believe that Notre Dame is going to cover all of these large spreads because they’re still mad about being left out of the College Football Playoff last season.

So far, that has held true, but the market will adjust to this sentiment.

And as wide as the gap between these two teams is, the stylistic matchup of this game will make it pretty difficult for Notre Dame to cover this spread.

The Irish offense has been superb through the first two games and looks like it has a chance to be the best unit in the country, but they play at a slow pace.

Notre Dame ranks 116th in seconds per play, which isn’t ideal when you’re backing a team laying this many points.

Michigan State’s offense is also on the slower side, and the Spartans deploy a run-heavy scheme, which should keep the clock moving.

And don’t look now, but Sparty has been pretty efficient with the ball through two games. Michigan State is averaging 5.5 yards per play, and quarterback Alessio Milivojevic has run a tidy ship.

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It needs to be noted that those performances came against Toledo and Eastern Michigan, but there was still plenty to like about both contests.

Pat Fitzgerald was a master at getting his Northwestern teams to hang with some of the heavyweights in the Big Ten, and I suspect he’ll be able to do the same in East Lansing.

Notre Dame should be able to swat aside Sparty, but back the underdogs to stay within the number.

The Play: Michigan State +29.5 (-110, DraftKings)

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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.