Colts vs. Chiefs pick, best bets: Kansas City set for another primetime blowout on ‘SNF’

Patrick Mahomes reminded us that he didn’t spend the first seven years of his career building a dynasty just to have it erased by a knee surgery. 

The Chiefs were their vintage selves in their 31-10 win over the Broncos on Monday, but the new guy stole the show: Kenneth Walker III tore up the defense for 191 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, one of which was a 60-yard score on fourth-and-1. 

Even though Mahomes only threw for 184 yards, he still piloted the win with versatility against a stout Denver defense by breaking open the scoring with a 15-yard touchdown run and tossing a touchdown to Rashee Rice. 

He also achieved this with the lowest time to throw (2.13 seconds) among all quarterbacks who started and finished their game.

Colts vs. Chiefs prediction, best bet

They return to Arrowhead Stadium for another primetime feature against the Colts, who were just thrashed 41-23 by the Ravens.

Indianapolis gave up 506 yards and allowed Baltimore to go on a 28-0 run, while both Daniel Jones and Jonathon Taylor were responsible for turnovers.

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) rushes for a touchdown during a game against the Baltimore Ravens at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026. USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Colts, who have now lost eight consecutive games dating back to last season, are 6.5-point underdogs despite having defeated Mahomes in two of three meetings with him. 

Indianapolis’ loss exposed weaknesses all over the gridiron, from run defense to linebacker discipline and pass protection against heavy personnel groupings.

They ended the week ranked No. 29 in EPA per play.

For one thing, Walker III is in for another big night after Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry combined for four rushing scores against the Colts. 

More importantly, Kansas City established the league’s No. 1 EPA per play and No. 2 success rate defensively. That unit now gets Jones, who completed 19 of 31 passes for 166 yards and an interception in his first regular-season game since an Achilles injury. 


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The Colts will make defensive adjustments, but their offense would need to trump Steve Spagnuolo’s complex blitzes, which forced four sacks and a 2-for-12 conversion rate on third down against Denver. 

That inconceivability is worth more than a possession.

THE PLAY: Chiefs -6.5 (51 percent, Kalshi)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.

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