***Editor’s note: This story ran in the Sept. 25 edition of The Post when the Texans were available at -2.5. However, on Friday afternoon, the Texans ruled out wide receiver Nico Collins for to a hamstring injury and the line shifted one point toward Indianapolis at -1.5. Houston’s alternative spread of -2.5 comes in at a price of -107 at DraftKings.

Post sports gambling editor/producer and digital sports editor Matt Ehalt is back for his third season in the NFL Bettor’s Guide. 

Houston Texans (-2.5) over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

This may as well be an elimination game since only three teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3, according to Yahoo.

Many expected the Texans to be a playoff team this season, while plenty questioned the Colts’ upside.

We like Houston, even on the road and likely without Nico Collins, since it possesses a stronger roster top to bottom and has a defense that can give Daniel Jones fits.

Jones completed just 14 of 27 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns last year in a 20-16 victory.

Wide receiver Alec Pierce had four catches for 78 yards and one touchdown in that game, but he won’t play since he just landed on injured reserve.

The Texans’ defense has been a bit of a disappointment to start the year by allowing 56 points, but they faced the Bills and the Bengals.

Those teams, when healthy, can score with the best of them. It’s fair to worry about Houston’s beleaguered offense, but the Colts can’t stop a cold, and we already saw Houston score 31 against Buffalo – albeit with Collins healthy.

Indianapolis ranks 32nd in yards allowed per game (514.5), 32nd in passing yards yielded per contest (337.5), and 31st – they can thank the Panthers – in rushing yards surrendered per clash (177).

Betting on the NFL?

Asking Jones to win a potential shootout against an elite defense with a compromised offense seems like a tall order for the ex-Giants quarterback, and we simply believe that Houston is the team we will hear from later in the year.

The Colts’ season could be defined by what pick they give to the Jets in what is proving to be a disastrous trade for Sauce Gardner last season.

2026 record: 1-1
Last week: Eagles (L)

Why Trust New York Post Betting

Matt Ehalt has been picking against the spread since his childhood days when he entered his father’s newspaper pool and even took the top prize on more than one occasion. He specializes in NFL wagers and is quite successful with NCAA brackets.