Brock Purdy is on cusp of NFL record — if he can get past Broncos, Seahawks

The keepers of the NFL’s record books had better prepare their pens.

There’s a new name that’s going to need to be entered: Brock Purdy.

The San Francisco 49ers quarterback took home a pretty nice honor Thursday — recognized as the NFC Offensive Player of the Month for the first time in his career — but that may feel like small potatoes in a couple weeks when he officially earns another title:

The highest-rated passer in NFL history.

Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers throws during the first quarter against the Arizona Cardinals at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Getty Images

Purdy’s hot start this season has done more than take Kyle Shanahan’s offense to another level and propel his name into the center of the MVP debate. It has put him on the cusp of an NFL record. 

That is, if he can get past two of his toughest tests of the season the next two weeks.

Purdy is 64 pass attempts away from 1,500 for his career, which will officially qualify him for the NFL record books. With three straight games of a 100-plus rating — the only QB in the NFL with that notch on their belt this season — Purdy’s career number is sitting pretty at 105.4.

The current record holder, Lamar Jackson, has a mark of 102.7.

Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens passes the ball during the NFL Rio Game match against the Dallas Cowboys at Maracana Stadium in Rio de Janeiro. Ruano Carneiro/Shutterstock

Three others have ratings of 100 or better: Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. The rest of the Top 10 is populated by Russell Wilson, DeShaun Watson, Drew Brees, Dak Prescott, Jimmy Garoppolo (!), Jared Goff and Tom Brady. Reflective of the emphasis on passing in the modern offense, but generally pretty good company to keep.

(The only QBs in the top-50 all-time who played even a majority of their careers before the 2000s? Joe Montana and Steve Young, a testament to Bill Walsh’s innovation.)

The metric, for anyone familiar, measures completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt on a scale of 0 to 158.3. Purdy’s 20-of-22 effort against the Dolphins, for example, scored a 149.1, the second-highest mark in the NFL this season (trailing Trevor Lawrence’s four-TD, five-incompletion game in Week 1.)

Purdy is the only quarterback responsible for two of the Top 10 individual game passer ratings this season, with his four-touchdown performance last week checking in at No. 8 (133.8).

Brock Purdy scrambles with the ball against the Arizona Cardinals in the first quarter at Levi’s Stadium. Getty Images

Shanahan’s system, evolved from Walsh, sets up any quarterback to perform well in the formula with a steady diet of high-efficiency throws. Purdy picked it up from the jump — on his way to beginning his career 6-0 upon taking over for an injured Garappolo, he also became the first QB in NFL history with passer ratings of 95 or better in his first six starts.

Now in Year 5 with Shanahan and many of his favorite weapons, Purdy has elevated his play.

General manager John Lynch said on KNBR this week that he has noticed Purdy operating with more “conviction” and putting more “torque” on his throws. “He’s been known as the ‘layer king’ over the years,” Lynch said. “He’s really driving the football this year.”

That, Purdy explained, is partially a product of his increasing comfort and command of Shanahan’s offense. But it was also a focus this summer after watching tape from last season.

“Obviously I’m pretty [good] with the touch ball and anticipation, but when it comes to getting the ball out of my hands and windows closing quick in the NFL, for me, this year I wanted to make an emphasis on just putting more zip on the ball and having a violent mindset,” Purdy said.

Seattle Seahawks safety Julian Love makes an interception against New England Patriots. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

“I don’t think it has anything to do with [arm strength], I think it’s your mindset when you drop back and you’re going through progressions. When something’s there, have your feet in the ground and have the mindset to put it on them.”

It’s worked out well for him against a jet-lagged Rams defense and two other overmatched opponents. Purdy’s performance on Sunday against the Broncos and the following week in Seattle will reveal a lot about his growth from last season.

In theory, the next two weeks could determine if he earns the top spot in the record book. But in reality, Purdy has been so good already this season that his passer rating is almost guaranteed to be higher than Jackson’s when he qualifies, most likely a few weeks from now on Monday Night Football at home against the Commanders.

Denver Broncos safety Talanoa Hufanga returns an interception for a touchdown on a pass by Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. AP Photo/David Zalubowski

That’s not to say it won’t be a challenge: Vance Joseph’s defense, featuring Patrick Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga, has limited opposing QBs to a 74.3 rating this season, third-worst in the NFL. Awaiting next week: the Seahawks, with a 76.2 opposing passer rating that ranks fifth.

But it would take something extraordinary for Purdy to put together the kind of clunker that it would take for his career mark to fall below 102.7. If he even completes 33% of his next 64 passes for a measly 130 yards, Purdy’s passer rating would still come out just ahead – 102.8.

Really, the number to shoot for is 110.7. That was Mahomes’ passer rating when he reached the threshold to qualify in his fourth season, the highest mark ever for a QB in his first 1,500 attempts.

If Purdy’s career passer rating is anywhere in that neighborhood after the next two weeks, against these two defenses, the 49ers are probably 5-0 with the MVP front-runner in tow.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *