Brazil's big political rematch: What to know
Towels and caps for sale depicting Brazilian presidential candidates Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Flavio Bolsonaro are seen in a residential area of Brasília on September 11, 2026. Brazil will hold a presidential elections on October 4, 2026.
Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty Images
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Sergio Lima/AFP via Getty Images
RIO DE JANEIRO — Brazil’s presidential election is a rematch of the country’s bitter 2022 contest — but with a twist. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is facing Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the man he narrowly defeated four years ago, Jair Bolsonaro.
Flávio, a 45-year-old senator, is carrying his father’s political movement into Sunday’s election. Jair Bolsonaro is now serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup to overturn that loss. His son has promised to pardon him if elected.
The younger Bolsonaro says he is “a more moderate Bolsonaro,” but has voiced few policy differences from his father. He pledges to pardon his father over the coup conviction, has cast doubt on humans’ responsibility for climate change, and supports making it easier for Brazilians to buy guns.
Lula, 80, is seeking a fourth presidential term. The result will determine whether Brazil stays with Lula’s left-leaning government or returns the Bolsonaro movement to the presidency.
The stakes extend well beyond the two families.
The next president is expected to nominate four of 11 Supreme Court justices, giving the winner a significant influence over the court for years to come.
The next president will also shape Brazil’s economy and environmental policy, its relationship with the United States, and the future of its young democracy.
Here’s what you need to know about Brazil’s Oct. 4 election.
The election could stretch into late October
Polls suggest a tight race between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro among a field of presidential candidates. Federal and state legislative seats and state governorships are also up for grabs. If no candidate for president or governor receives more than 50% of the valid votes Sunday, the two candidates with the most votes will continue to a runoff on Oct. 25.
Brazil uses electronic voting machines and typically counts the results within hours. By Sunday night, it will likely be clear who is headed to a runoff — and how strongly each candidate performed in the first round.
The Bolsonaro name is carrying a lot of baggage
Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 election to Lula by a narrow margin and then became the central figure in an effort to reject the result. He is now serving a sentence for plotting a coup to overturn that loss, a scheme that included a plan to assassinate Lula, according to police.
The younger Bolsonaro has made clear that he intends to stand by his father. His pledge to pardon Jair if elected has turned the former president’s legal fate into a campaign issue — and raised broader questions about the consequences of a Bolsonaro return to power for Brazil’s democratic institutions.
Lula was jailed on corruption and money laundering charges in 2018, but the Supreme Court annulled his convictions in 2021 on procedural grounds. The episode remains a point of contention in Brazilian politics. His supporters point to other parts of his record, including reductions in poverty and efforts to protect the Amazon rainforest.
Both political camps inspire intensely loyal supporters — and fierce opposition. Polarization has remained high since the political and economic crisis of the mid-2010s, after which, said Federal University of Paraná political scientist Fábio Vasconcellos, “it became very difficult for any president to reach the higher approval ratings of previous decades.”
Domestic issues could shape the vote
For all the attention on the Bolsonaro family and the battle over Brazil’s political direction, voters are also focused on problems much closer to home.
Insecurity is a top issue for voters. Bolsonaro supports a hardline approach to crime-fighting that he’s suggested could include joint work with the U.S. military, while Lula has favored operations targeting the financiers of gangs and voiced skepticism of outside countries influencing Brazil’s security policies.
Voters also worry about corruption. Media and police investigations in recent weeks have revealed allegedly improper ties between a jailed ex-banker known for bribery and Supreme Court justices and other top politicians. Bolsonaro himself took money from the banker and is being investigated on money laundering charges, which he denies.
And voters worry about Brazil’s economy. Lula’s embrace of public spending helped drive economic growth early in his government, but growth has since slowed.
Bolsonaro argues Brazil’s hefty national debt is holding back the economy and a top campaign adviser has pledged to reduce it by slashing spending along the lines of Argentina’s Javier Milei.
Trump looms large over the vote
Supporters of opposition presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro march with an effigy of U.S. President Donald Trump holding a doll depicting Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as a prisoner, during an Independence Day event in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Monday, Sept. 7, 2026, the month before the general election.
Andre Penner/AP
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Andre Penner/AP
The United States has become an unusually visible presence in this year’s campaign. Rallies for Flávio have featured U.S. flags, reflecting his pledge to align more closely with the Trump administration.
A September cover of a leading Brazilian political magazine captured the perceived U.S. interest in the election with an image of a giant U.S. spaceship hovering over a small Brazilian polling site.
The Bolsonaros have for years sought close ties to Trump.
Flávio’s brother, Eduardo, is living in the United States, where he has urged Trump to take action against Supreme Court justices who oversaw his father’s coup-plot trial. Last year, Trump cited that trial as a justification for hiking tariffs on Brazil by 40%.
Lula, meanwhile, has pushed back against Trump’s pressure. He negotiated with the U.S. president to reduce some tariffs while saying Brazil’s judicial independence was not negotiable. Lula has also criticized U.S. policy toward Venezuela, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January.
In July, Lula publicly accused Washington of trying to meddle in Brazil’s election. Brazilian officials said U.S. officials planned to travel to Brazil to spread doubt about the reliability of Brazilian voting machines. The State Department called the accusation “a baseless lie.”
That relationship could become especially consequential if the election is close.
Yuri Sanches, head of political analysis at Brazilian polling and analysis firm AtlasIntel, says a narrow Lula victory could prompt Bolsonaro supporters to challenge the result.
“If Lula wins the election by a close margin, then almost for sure we would have some Bolsonaro supporters questioning the results,” Sanches says.
“They may ask for help from Trump, from Rubio, from the United States, saying that the election was rigged, that the electoral system, the electronic voting machines are not reliable.”
A victory for Flávio would also give greater political weight to the conservative movement that has gained ground across South America in recent years.
This is a sensitive moment for Brazil’s democracy
Brazil emerged from military dictatorship in 1985 and has since developed into one of the world’s largest democracies. According to V-Dem, an academic democracy research institute at the University of Gothenburg, Brazil ranks 28th on its Liberal Democracy Index, compared with 51st for the United States. The index measures factors including checks on executive power.
Brazil’s 2025 prosecution and conviction of Jair Bolsonaro over the coup plot marked a significant test of its democratic institutions. The pledge by his son, Flávio, to pardon him has since raised questions about the durability of those institutions.
But the stakes extend beyond Brazil. As Latin America’s largest economy and most populous country, Brazil belongs to the G20, a forum of major economies, and BRICS, a bloc of emerging powers.
The expanded BRICS countries account for nearly half the world’s population and about 39% of global GDP, measured by purchasing power parity.
The election will therefore be closely watched not only for what it says about Brazil’s democracy, but also for what it could mean for the country’s role in global trade, climate policy, security and the balance between the United States and the wider Global South.
- Admin
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