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Today’s top stories

In four weeks, Election Day will be here, and a series of new polls show Democrats have a decided advantage in the midterms. They are favored to win the House with a narrow majority. Democrats need 218 seats for a majority, and the Cook Political Report forecasts a net gain of five to 15 seats, which would give them between 220 and 230 seats in January. The Senate has shifted more dramatically. Six seats have moved toward the Democrats’ direction since June, according to Cook’s ratings. Initially seen as a long shot for Democrats, the Senate is now within reach. These projections come as President Trump’s approval rating is low.

• 🎧 Polls are just one factor to consider for the midterms, NPR’s Domenico Montanaro tells Up First. He notes that people should consider the importance of history, the national environment, political structure and money as factors as well. And people still have to vote in the elections, but even so, the momentum seems to be shifting toward Democrats, particularly in the Senate. Democratic gains in the House are uncertain, as the party’s unpopularity and the fact that 25 of the 31 targeted districts are in areas Trump won in 2024 could make it hard to tip the scales in their favor, Montanaro says.
• ➡️ If you haven’t registered to vote yet, it isn’t too late. Here’s what you need to know about registration in your state.
• ➡️ Find the latest election news from NPR and your local station on the NPR app.

A new era in Hollywood is set to arrive today as David Ellison’s long-anticipated $111 billion merger with Paramount-Skydance and Warner Bros. Discovery is expected to close. Despite facing months of public protests, the deal has cleared legal and regulatory challenges in the U.S. and Europe. The media conglomerate Skydance unites two film studios, Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros. Pictures, both more than 100 years old.

• 🎧 Ellison defended the merger against critics concerned about him having too much media power, NPR’s Mandalit del Barco says. As part of a settlement to move the deal forward, Ellison agreed to produce 30 films a year with the combined studios, but critics remain skeptical. Concerns also linger about CNN’s future, given that Ellison is an ally of Trump. To address these worries, Ellison promised to establish an independent oversight board to protect CNN from political interference. People who don’t agree with the deal predict that viewers may soon see an increase in cost for streaming services and they could have fewer choices, according to del Barco.

Catherine Sweeney from NPR network station WPLN was one of seven media witnesses to observe Tennessee’s failed execution of Christa Pike, the first woman to face the death penalty in the state in nearly 200 years. Each witness sensed that the lethal injection might not proceed smoothly. Pike’s attorneys had requested the Tennessee Supreme Court to allow hanging instead due to concerns that her platelet disorder and small veins would make the injection painful and ineffective. Sweeney describes what she saw and heard throughout that day.