Republican congressman tries to outrun a potential blue wave in New York toss-up seat
Rep. Mike Lawler, R-NY, speaks during a press conference in Chappaqua, New York. Lawler is running in a tight race in a toss-up district that could help determine control of Congress.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images North America
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Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images North America
ROCKLAND COUNTY, New York – Photos of children and grandchildren line the wall behind the counter at Sparky’s Diner, a local joint that sits on the corner of a busy intersection in Garnerville, New York, about an hour outside New York City.
“I’ve been in this place 50 years, it’ll be 51 in February,” said Jeannie Nicolakis, the diner’s owner. “I started out – I didn’t even have my kids at the time – and then I had my kids, and I raised them in here, in a playpen.”
But her pride doesn’t stop at her family. It extends to her congressman, Mike Lawler, a two-term Republican running for reelection in New York’s 17th district. It is one of the closest races in the country in a seat encompassing a string of commuter towns and suburbs around the Hudson River Valley.
“He’s like my own son. That’s how I see him,” she said, before adding, “not really my son – because I’m old enough to be his grandmother – but I see him as a grandson that’s done so much for this county.”
To supporters like Nicolakis, no one can take Lawler’s place. But this district is far from a Republican stronghold. It’s one of just a handful of places that elected a Republican to the House of Representatives in 2024 and also voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat.
Two years later, Lawler’s ability to hold onto the seat could be a deciding factor in determining whether Republicans can keep their narrow majority in the House of Representatives. He faces a competitive challenge from Democrat Cait Conley, a military veteran and former counterterrorism official during the Biden administration who has sought to chip away at the broader coalition that’s elected Lawler to congress twice before.
Lawler has tried to position himself as a Republican who is unafraid to cross his own party and highlights examples on the campaign trail, including how he broke with the administration over the decision to end a policy that shielded nearly 350,000 of Haitian migrants from deportation. Lawler says he was able to get the White House to temporarily extend work authorizations for beneficiaries of the program, however that has since expired.
He also regularly touts his work to raise the state and local property tax deduction, or SALT cap, a popular issue among his constituents that became a flash point in negotiations over Trump’s massive tax and spending bill. Lawler ultimately cast a deciding vote in favor of the legislation, though critics have argued that other key parts of the bill have hurt voters, notably, thesizable cuts to federal healthcare funds.
At the same time, Lawler hasn’t shied away from Trump.
Rep. Mike Lawler, R-NY, walks on stage on the second day of the Republican National Convention in September.
Alex Wong/Getty Images North America
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Alex Wong/Getty Images North America
“The truth is that the president and I don’t always agree, and that’s okay. After all, we’re both New Yorkers,” Lawler said in an address at the Republican National Convention in September. “What I learned about President Trump behind closed doors is that if you’re willing to make your case and fight for what you believe in, he’s willing to listen.”
With less than a month until Election Day, Democrat and Republican-aligned groups have already collectively spent more than $40 million on ad spending in this race.
It comes as national polls show the GOP at a disadvantage, finding that voters are more likely to choose Democrats over Republicans when asked which party’s candidate they would back in their district. Plus, President Trump continues to battle historically low approval ratings, with a majority of Americans saying they “strongly disapprove” of his job performance, according to the latest NPR/PBS News/Marist poll.
Can voters separate Lawler from his party?
Just outside of Sparky’s Diner on a recent sunny Saturday afternoon, a lengthy procession of local first-responders and marching bands participate in the annual Rockland County Volunteer Firefighters Association parade. Lawler walks alongside them, frequently stopping to take selfies and shake hands with residents lining nearby sidewalks.
Despite the national stakes of his race, Lawler remains confident in his victory this fall, asserting that his deep understanding of the district makes him the right person to lead it.
“Look, all politics is local,” he said in an interview as he neared the end of the parade route.
“My constituents know who I am,” he said. “The people who are solely voting on the basis of their dislike of Donald Trump, that’s their prerogative, that’s their right. But the vast majority of my constituents care about the substance of issues and the policy solutions that we can forge. And I’m proud of the record that I’ve been able to deliver for this district.”
But campaigning as an independent voice within Trump’s party may be a tough line for the sitting Republican to walk, especially as voters continue to raise alarm bells about the high cost of living.
Across the Hudson River in the town of Armonk, located within the more liberal-leaning Westchester County, Brett Silverstein is one of many parents trying to keep an eye on their kids as they run around the town’s fall festival. He cites high energy prices as a top concern.
“You’re paying for goods that are inflated because of how much gasoline is and how much diesel is,” he said, adding that while he used to vote for Republicans, he doesn’t like Trump and in turn remains doubtful of Lawler’s message.
“He’s supported Trump and kind of the whole ‘MAGA train’ over the past 2 to 4 years,” he said. “So given how he’s affiliated with that, I’m just not a big fan of it in general.”
It’s an association that’s pushed away some of the voters that first backed Lawler in 2022, including self-described moderate Mike Monroe, who ended up casting a ballot against the sitting congressman two years later and plans to again this year.
“He’s basically the House of Representatives’ version of [Maine Republican Sen.] Susan Collins,” said Monroe, who lives in the town of Nanuet, part of Rockland County. “[Lawler] stands up to the Trump administration in certain instances, but only when it doesn’t matter.”
Democrats here walk their own political tight rope
Monroe now volunteers for Conley, who’s tried to appeal to Democrats as well as disaffected Republicans and Independents on the campaign trail by arguing that Lawler’s record in Congress has made New Yorkers worse off.
“Whether it’s somebody who’s a registered Republican, Independent or Democrat, [it] doesn’t matter,” Conley said in an interview. “The pain they’re feeling is real for all, regardless of political affiliation.”
“It’s harder to put food on the table, keep a roof over their heads, afford health care, or keep the lights on. And they deserve better. And I will be better,” she added.
Cait Conley, the Democrat running against Rep. Mike Lawler, R-NY, hopes to appeal to Democrats and disaffected Republicans to win in November.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images North America
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Spencer Platt/Getty Images North America
Conley has also tried to differentiate herself from factions of her party that could turn off swing voters, distancing from high-profile figures on the left like New York City Mayor and democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani. She also hasn’t publicly campaigned alongside the state’s Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, who has faced criticism from Lawler and other Republicans in the state particularly over her economic and immigration-related policies.
It’s a strategy that could prove helpful for this district where fewer voters are fiercely partisan.
“A lot of swing districts are just swing districts because they’re equal number of Democrats and Republicans. That’s not really what’s going on in NY-17,” said Evan Roth Smith, a democratic pollster who runs the firm Slingshot Strategies.
Polling conducted by Slingshot shows that between 30 and 40 percent of voters in the district are either ticket splitters or are only loosely partisan in their personal identification with the parties.
“One cycle they might vote for a Republican, the next cycle they might vote for a Democrat,” Roth Smith said. “So it’s a swing district because there are a lot of swing voters.”
That’s the case for retired builder Michael Alvarado, who lives in Stony Point, a town farther north within Rockland.
“I vote for whoever thinks my way,” he said. “I don’t really have a party. I’m not a Republican or a Democrat. Actually I would say I’m more of a Democrat than a Republican.”
Though he says he supported Lawler last time, he’s still deciding this year, and cares most about backing a candidate who is pro union and will cut school and property taxes.
When asked if anyone is currently speaking to those concerns, Alvarado replies, “not really,” but added, he always votes.
“I’m just looking. See what happens come November. We’ll hear all the promises.”
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