Each week we get a little bit closer to the games that matter most. The College Football Playoffs are closer than you probably realize and we are essentially at the halfway mark for the year. We will still have the conference championships and a few of the lower-level bowl games, and plenty of great matchups in between. One of those great matchups happens today as UCLA takes on Oregon.

UCLA comes into the game as the 21st-ranked team in the nation. The Bruins are 4-0 for the season and currently 2-0 in conference play. In Week 1, UCLA took on Cal on the road and was able to win 45-24. Then in Week 2, the Bruins hosted San Diego State University, winning 28-10. The offense didn’t really get rolling, but their defense was good enough to get the stop.

The Bruins faced Purdue in Week 3, and they got the offense back on track with a 52-38 victory. Then on the road against Maryland, they had their best game of the season, winning 54-3. Last week was a bye week, giving them a chance to prepare for this one. Most of their work has been done on the ground, as Nico Iamaleava has just 820 passing yards and four touchdown passes. They will need him to be elite against Oregon if they want to pull off an upset.

The Oregon Ducks are 3-1 for the season and back up to 13th in the nation. It has not been a smooth ride to start the season with a couple of narrow victories and one upset. Week 1, the team hosted Boise State, and won 34-27, but this wasn’t exactly a comfortable game. The Ducks finally got the stops needed in the fourth quarter and the game-winning score.

Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) warms up prior to the 2025 Orange Bowl and quarterfinal game of the College Football Playoff against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Jan. 1, 2026. (Sam Navarro/Imagn Images)

In Week 2, the Ducks couldn’t find a way to escape the loss. They faced Oklahoma State on the road and lost 39-31. It was one of those classic games where they were teetering toward a loss and then finally lost this one. The past two weeks have been a bit easier. After the loss, they faced Portland State and took out their frustration on them, winning 84-0. In Week 4, they won 41-27 over USC on the road, and that pushed them back up the rankings.

THE CRAIG CARTON SHOW–UNFILTERED, UNAPOLOGETIC AND UNMISSABLE. DOWNLOAD HIS DAILY PODCAST NOW!

In order for UCLA to pull off the upset, it needs to make this a grind-it-out type game. The running attack has been very good. The Bruins have run the ball 60 more times than they’ve thrown it this season, so clearly they know their strength. Oregon ranks 39th in the nation against the run.

Dante Moore #5 of the Oregon Ducks looks on between plays during a game between Boise State University and University of Oregon at Autzen Stadium on September 5, 2026 in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Al Sermeno/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images) (Al Sermeno/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)

Oregon will look to use a balance of both the run and pass to get a win. However, it does feel like this still might not be enough to cover the spread. I don’t have much confidence in either of the quarterbacks. I lean to the over, though, as both teams should find some holes and put up at least 25 points each. I’m going to take the points with UCLA. Oregon just doesn’t look that good this season.

SIGN UP FOR THE DAILY OUTKICK NEWSLETTER

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024